ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah the interior is having a sneaky bad year....even a place like ORH who got nearly 15" in the blizzard and even got a pair of 6" events (1/7 mesoband and the 1/17 BGM storm front-ended them) before the blizzard....is taking it on the chin this winter. They are like 12" below normal now on the season and the deficit is only going to grow over the next week.
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Yeah when I started seeing the -PNA/-NAO pattern setting up on guidance, I was starting to think big things for the month, but it ended up being a harbinger of how this season has gone. Always something unforeseen and anomalous to screw up an otherwise great setup....whether its a double boob low turning a Feb '13 into an E MA CJ or having the -PNA decide to dig far enough south for Cabo San Lucas to freeze their balls off.
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Yeah we could still get one...but I'm just surprised we haven't had them already this season. As I discussed with Ray earlier, we had a pretty good longwave pattern for them in December, but the -PNA just went a little too extreme on us. Like if that was "merely" -2 sigma instead of like -4 sigma, we probably clean up.
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Yeah for sure...if that RNA was just a little less extreme...we likely would have had multiple events like that (we went over how similar that pattern was to Dec 1970...just the RNA was more extreme)....you saw how many went through the meatgrinder as they were approaching us. Not only does a lesser RNA relax some of that meatgrinder, it also allows the cold to seep a little further south....potent combo...highs pressing down a little more against stronger shortwaves that don't lose their integrity.
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I just happened to scroll through clown range on the GFS today....and this event caught my eye not because it's remotely going to happen, but because it's the type of event I would have expected more of this season but we just haven't seen them. We usually have at least 1 or 2 during a La Nina. Even cruddy La Ninas usually feature one. Can't remember the last time we had a solid front end thump on a nice SWFE...maybe 2/12/19.
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I'd actually be surprised if you don't see at least a 1-2" snowfall...with a chance for advisory amounts down there. Back here, I'm thinking probably a C-1" type deal, but can't rule out a 2-3 incher yet if we bring this back west ever so slightly which is certainly still possible.
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EPSis back to a furnace to end February. But it’s been showing that off and on for weeks and it never seems to verify. But might be a little more plausible this time…they still disagree though with GEFS over what’s happening in the EPO region.
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You’re not forecasting 6” of snow there?
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At least the car seats will feel warm in the parking lot with the -20C airmass behind it.
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It would take a special set of circumstances for me not to root for a snow event. I’m not a jackpot fetishest or even a big dog elitist. I’ll take the 2” snowfall.
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Reggie got better....but it had nothing at 12z....now it has that fronto band trying to give a couple inches to eastern folks.
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It is shocking news....but the 18z ICON will not be repeating the warning event that the 12z run showed for eastern areas.
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Yeah...basically poison pill is any "Caveat" to a better trend...like "the southern stream got better but the northern stream pressed more so it still sucked" or "both the northern stream and southern stream got better but a previous unidentified scooter shitstreak appeared in Quebec just in the nick of time to suppress the best forcing out to sea".
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Always keeping us sucked in. Not biting until Euro or GFS shows a definitive move that isn’t accompanied by some poison pill.
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I think you are referring to the Jan 2016 blizzard that crushed the mid-atlantic....2/5/16 was a short term bust that came roaring back in the final 48 hours to give a lot of SNE warning snowfall with 9-12" in eastern MA/RI.
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It's pretty clear you aren't recovering to a respectable season there (and maybe not here either), but I'm still rooting for good storms. The alternative is dogshit this time of the year. Really untl at least mid/late April...sometimes longer.
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Yeah it's been one of those seasons....but I've learned over the years not to let past failed storms cloud the judgement on a new threat unless there is a good reason to compare them. Sometimes you'll get the coup out of nowhere even in a bad season (2/5/16 comes to mind)....but this one is running out of time quickly for sure and I'd probably close the shades in western areas too. Even out east it's running out of rope quickly. Hopefully we can score a bomb as the wavelengths shorten.
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EPS still saying at least SE areas should still monitor this....it's about time to write off a bigger solution though. At the very least we'd need to see a pretty big shift by 00z tonight to start thinking anything higher-end again (double digit snowfall). It's too bad because we've managed to trend the northern stream into a decent position but the southern vort went to crap and keeps the flow too broad/rounded.
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Yeah departures in spring are mostly driven by onshore flow/diabatics...esp once past the first couple weeks (we can still get solid cold from deep layer advection in late March/early Apr but it loses it's punch really quick after that)
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Definitely a bit better but it's not enough for most....this is going to be a classic fronto band for SE MA where they get 8" of fluff and the rest of us are scraps.
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This is a classic setup for Tblizz bitches his way to 8" in a fronto band while the rest of us get whiffed or 1-2" sand.
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Northern stream was better on GFS but southern stream was worse
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Reggie wasn't a big help....but we've seen NAM and ICON trend significantly better. Kind of annoyed that Reggie did not trend better aloft like the other two did, but we'll see what the varsity models say soon.
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What is Tblizz doing this morning?...time to confiscate the edibles from him.
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Slow is good too in this case....we want the whole trough to slow down and give us time to let that northern stream turn the flow more S to N on the eastern side of the trough...
