ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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RGEM not biting on the NAM solutions is a bit of a red flag to me. It should be catching onto this inside of 24h. I’m not buying NAM yet. I’ll give it until the 00z run but for now I’m sticking with 1-2” here maybe a 3” lolli. Down there it could be advisory snows.
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If northern stream was able to capture it would be a really big system. Double digits…but oh well…I’d be ecstatic if even something like the NAM verified.
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Good cross hair sig on some of these soundings too.
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Lol 18z NAM gives warning snow to parts of ORH county just from that band.
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I’d watch to see if those higher amounts in the fronto band start translating further NE as we get closer to game time. Already sort of seeing it some.
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18z NAM getting interesting.
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Ukie bumped NW again too.
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GFS was good for SE MA
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Its important to get that 1” on the roads.
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There will definitely be two jackpots in this one. First one will be under the fronto band and the second will be in SE MA probably from the IVT stuff.
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12zNAM coming in just a smidge better again.
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It’s initially a pretty defined fronto band but then as the event drags on, it’s more an IVT in SE MA and that’s where advisory amounts would be most likely.
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06z euro looked a little better again. Maybe 1-2” for a good chunk of SNE with some 3-4” amounts in far SE MA. Gonna have to watch for dry air on northern edge.
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Yeah I’d take it in a heartbeat but unfortunately it will cave in the next run or two once all the varsity models have had their turn showing how out to lunch it is.
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Icon is tossed. Nothing else is remotely supporting it. Best chance of advisory snows is a narrow stripe from the little fronto band models have.
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Yes that 2/8 storm was a disappointment. Some model runs were trying to give a lot more but we ended up getting too much shortwave interference inside of 48 hours and it turned into a mundane moderate event….the 2/5 event was much better.
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Yeah it’s doable. The issue is you have to avoid the trend back east too when this close in. But if we can grab another couple 20 mile jogs NW, it gets a lot more interesting.
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For Jerry....this was less than 48 hours before the 2/5/16 event: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/WRF_18z/namloop.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/AVN_18z/avnloop.html Prob one of the worst we've seen in recent years for that short of a lead time. Almost certainly not gonna happen this time, but another small nudge could make it a respectable advisory event and maybe something a little more for far SE areas.
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ICON and Reggie both came NW too....ICON trying to give SE MA a legit snowstorm again....lol. So pretty clear trend on the 18z JV models....lets see if the varsity team is game.
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Probably not, but we obviously did it 6 years ago....lol. It really doesn't need to move that much to give BOS-PVD and SE areas a solid 4-7" type event. But the bigger issue is when you are this close to the event, you cannot afford any setbacks. If 00z just tickles back SE, then it's a nothing-burger or nuisance event.....or even the other 18z guidance if it doesn't tick NW like the NAM did.
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I haven't had a good winter. Not as bad as you, but it's been solidly below normal for snowfall. If you lopped 6" off my 1/29 total, it wouldn't really change my perception much.
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Lots of whining these days. But whatever....I'll take whatever snow I can get. I try to tune out the whining.
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Happy hour NAM is actually pretty decent for CT over to SE MA...maybe 2-4" amounts in a stripe. Maybe even approaching 5-6" in SE MA.
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ATL blocking looks dead to me....maybe it comes back in March....but I'm not counting on it. That said, we can still get plenty of overrunning events without ATL blocking. Essentially all of 2007-2008 had no blocking and ditto 1993-1994. '93-'94 had a great pacific though...'07-'08 was a little more muddled but we had great timing on so many events to keep the highs to our north.
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Hopefully we can grab another 56F on the 3-4th of July again like last year.
