ORH_wxman

Saturday looks interesting with squalls, but it falls short of the highest events like 1/28/10. The biggest difference was an event like 2010 had saturation up to like 500mb...so you had the instability off the charts whereas tomorrow is more like up to 700mb and then it dries out above that. It's still very unstable but when you cap the cloud tops at H7 instead of H5 or higher, then it lowers the ceiling. But events like 2010 are a high bar...they happen maybe once or twice a decade. But tomorrow does check ALL the WINDEX parameters very well so I would be surprised if there weren't widespread squalls: 1. Big T difference (lapse rate) from sfc to H7 or H5 2. LL moisture pooling ahead of the front 3. Big lift (the primitive checklist used LI spike, but we know there's good lift around with soundings these days) 4. Strong positive PVA to help enhance the lift and concentrate it

Yeah you broke 48"....even back in Natick I measured 44" on the level and we got less than you in both the 2/7-9 and 2/14-15 events. Only time I had more than that was March 2001 in ORH when I was close to 48" (measured between 45-52" back then...but hard to know exactly how much it was for sure)

That composite loop didn't even include the SWFE threat late next week either. Would be nice to land a beefy warning SWFE event next Friday and then let her rip on this pattern for 2-3 weeks and see how much ground we can make up.

One of these years, Kevin will get his 2012 prediction correct.....we actually had back to back Marches like that in 1945 and 1946. Not happening this year.

You can see from the EPS animation, it's basically a standing wave over the PNA/EPO region.

That is so ridiculous. That's Feb 2015 vibes on that map.

Do Pinkham Notch

Been showing up on multiple runs of GFS/Euro/GGEM. Seems like one of those systems that models are identifying at a long lead time....we'll see though, lol.

Yeah the GFS look is cold....12z Ukie is still a torch and GGEM is in between though prob a bit closer to GFS.

The Tuesday system is getting colder too. Not convinced that one torches us...certainly for NNE.

ORH gusted to 49 knots a while ago...that's pretty good.

Pack melting fast here....backyard is mostly melted out....front yard still mostly covered but not for long.

And a few of our high QPF events were cutters. Those have so much run-off even if the pack survives them.

I made a comment yesterday or the day before on how even though I’ve basically had continuous pack since 1/7 (aside from right before the last recent event when that torch day in Saturday opened up large patches of ground), it didn’t feel like deep winter for much of the time because we generally had low water in the pack. Even after the sleet storm on 2/4 added some good water into the pack, it was only after a lot of melted the previous day, so it was only a minor net gain of LE. Typically over the interior, we’ll get a pack with at least 3-4 inches of water in it at some point but we’ve never gotten there. Places further NW like N ORH county will get 7 inches into the pack quite frequently, but it just hasn’t been that type of winter over the interior. We’ve really lacked those front ender type events and SWFE ls this winter. The 1/17 system was a front ender but that’s been one of the few…and even then it wasn’t a typical front ender that puts some sleet and ZR into the pack too…that one was like 6” and then straight to rain for ORH county.

I didn’t say anything was wrong with 1993. That march is the snowiest on record for both ORH and BOS.

I'm hoping for a 2018 finish....though the pattern isn't really 2018....more 1993 than 2018. Hopefully it doesn't end up like Mar 2015, though my guess is we'd do better in that pattern if we rolled the dice again.

Next Tuesday.

Got a lot flatter with that wave though…not far from something more wintry. We’ll have to see if it tries to pull a 2/4

Yeah and this is a good reason to be skeptical of the MJO RMM charts too (Scott- coastal_wx has often made this point)....they are often incorrect anyway, but even when they technically are correct, they may not be driving the pattern. It was a while back, but I also remember something similar happening in 2013 as well...everyone was going full blown torch for late Feb 2013 into March because of tropical forcing forecasts and those ended up being a huge bust. That type of anomalous cyclone you showed can also transfer a good amount heat into the upper troposphere of the arctic, so that will only help fuel any EPO blocking.

Yeah I found about 60" on the level up around the top of North Peak (just below in the woods)...probably was even higher in the woods of Oz/Aurora/Jordan. Even down at the base most spots had over 40". This was me actually at the old Evergreen Valley Inn about 25 minutes south of SR on that same trip. Even there in Stoneham, you can see it was about 3 feet on the level. Maybe a bit more in spots. There were a million snow mobilers there that year (you can even see part of a snow mobile in the foreground)

I agree that next week is definitely vulnerable to a southward push of the boundary....moreso than this week was. The meridional flow out of the northwest territories/Yukon is much more pronounced next week than this week is, so there is definitely room to see model guidance push the sfc boundary further south. It's already pushed south a decent amount from progs 2 days ago.....we'll have to see if that continues. There;s actually some weak Greenland ridging too early next week....it's not the driver, but it doesn't hurt. But you can see how much the flow out of NW Canada will want to press arctic cold south

That storm was really the line for where the month was good and where it wasn't. There was like a solid 8-12" in that storm where you got into the steady stuff. The gradient was insane....like from 8" to almost nothing within 5-10 miles.

March 2015 sucked ass for everyone not within 20 miles of the coast. Still, at least if it was going to be cold with little new snowfall, we had a monster pack to make it look nice. Mar 2014 was way worse....frigid but our pack got mostly wiped out by the 3/13/14 storm which was great for NNE. I did go up to Sunday River that month in 2014 and it was epic.

It probably won't be extreme...but even if that verifies diluted by 30%, it's still a pretty cold/stormy look. Then again, it's not uncommon for a signal that strong at D12-15 to morph into a extreme pattern.

Yeah you can see toward the end of the run, the PNA ridge and EPO are linked which creates a very meridional pattern that even loses the SE ridge....so perhaps a chance at a season-end big dog with that look if it verifies.