ORH_wxman

Yeah but your walkway for the chickens will melt out quicker in the March sun angle.

It's called going on tilt in poker terms...he's now rooting for a crappier version of the storm that broadbrushes 6-8" so he doesn't have to worry about jackpots....even though in a better version of the storm he might actually get more even if he doesn't jackpot.

This isn't an actual coastal though in the classic sense of the word...the secondary will help blunt the WAA, but it's not going to to ever reach maturity in the midlevels offshore. No matter which run you look at, H7 will go northwest of us.

Why, that reduces your ceiling considerably? You want to "lock in" like 8" and punt the chance for 13" because you're afraid Holliston might get 13" and you get 7"? That seems insane....esp considering even the Euro looks good for you and there is no doubt it's likely too far south with the snow max even on that exact run when you look aloft.

We were due for a good dendrite melt....now it will trend north and jackpot the chickens. Plenty of time with 72h to go.

You could see it early on though....there was way more confluence over Quebec around 48h-54h.

Wow, Euro is cold....coldest model on the 12z suite.

Yeah the 850 WF will definitely help prolong the precip and it will also make the precip heavier during the deeper layer thump. If model guidance doesn't shift much in the next 48 hours, then I'd lock in warning snows for the pike region. Not quite there yet. I'd prob lock in warning snows a little north though near Ray. Would have to be a pretty huge model failure not to get at least 6" up there.

Yeah I agree John that the mechanics on this are very impressive. There are factors working in tandem that will help wring out more QPF than we might normally expect on these types of events. This is barring a major model shift of course....still could happen, but guidance has been remarkably consistent.

Nice jackpot for Ray on Ukie....good spot up there for this one....far enough south to get in on the bent back WF slowing down but far enough north to probably avoid sleet....or any sleet of consequence....a couple hours of 15 dbz sleet when you're dryslotting at the end of the thump doesn't really matter. My gut still says the NH border region is the jackpot area, but pike region should still clean up nicely. I'm expecting a little bump north on the best features and QPF max zone. Even runs like the GEM, GFS and Ukie are tracking that vort over like BUF-ALB axis. That's not obviously the end-all-be-all....the WAA is going to get major resistance from that airmass....but you still have to think the laws of mid-levels are going to eventually square with that. You'll get a prolonged deeper saturation up closer to that track in S NH.

Yeah I remember being initially skeptical of 12"+ amounts in 2/5/14 but we were discussing the bent back WF and how it was just going nuts on the north side of it...and then it verified that morning. We were getting like 2-3" per hour rates even with snow growth not that great. Like a quasi-stationary band near the pike in that and maybe 10-20 miles either side. The QPF was big....BOS and ORH ASOS both had over an inch of QPF in that. Not saying we can lock that in yet on this one, but if the model guidance doesn't change significantly, then it's going to happen somewhere in a 20-30 mile wide zone.

Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement.

Yeah the NAM could be right with the further north vort track...if it is, then other guidance will start bringing the sleet further north. But if it's wrong on the vort, it will be wrong on the thermals.

This will end up well south of 2/4....even the chickens struggled to snow much in that one.

Just watch the vort track....if you track it over Toronto, it's going to be a warmer profile than if you are tracking it over BUF to BGM.

The dense airmass in place is going to help focus a lot of heavy lift over SNE even if we get sleet up to NH border area…so I think I’d probably be going warning snowfall amounts here unless we start getting this vort tracking north of Lake Ontario into Ottawa and start pelting the chickens. But I’m also a little bit skeptical of a very far north vort track for the same reason. Lot of confluence up there. This is a pretty ideal location for high pressure. Classic scooter high.

06zNAM might be right but it’s synoptically different than other guidance with how far north the vort is. If other guidance gets that vort tracking into Toronto then they will bring sleet up to S NH too. It’s not a situation where they are tracking things the same but NAM is just blasting ML warmth further north.

Yeah I could see 6-10” over the MA/CT border while you get 3-4” of snow and pellets. Certainly still on the table.

That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike.

Here’s a map from that storm

Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?) This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON.

Weeklies are below normal through the equinox. They do have a brief break between about 3/3 and 3/7 or so kind of like the EPS do, but it reloads quickly.

A couple years ago, we were actually making fun of a peer reviewed paper that showed snow climo going to like 40-50% of normal for places like ORH and PWM by 2040. I always wondered how those pass the smell test. I’m pretty open-minded, but ORH averaging 30” of snow in less than 2 decades is a hard one to square. I mean, we routinely clear that by 1-2 feet even in +3 or +4 temp departure winters.

I just caught up on the 12z runs as I was out all morning away from internet. The trend seemed to be a subtle shift south on the 12z guidance. GFS did bump north a bit but all the foreign models came a little south so the overall suite was a little colder/south than 00z. I still think this comes back a little north at some point down the stretch. The question is whether it sags a little south first before that happens. I’m also finding myself agreeing with Tip that the overall tenor of this system really hasn’t changed much at all in the past 48 hours. GFS made its usual moves but the rest of guidance hasn’t been all over the map that much. Esp when you concede that we’ve been tracking this since 200 hours out.

Yeah that’s the type of look that can turn into a coastal. There was a run or two that actually got us with something on the euro for that event. GFS today was a scraper. Something to watch for after the 2/25 threat.