ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Not a big move but a tick east and colder for those who were on the line on the 12z and 18z runs.
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I didn’t think it was a huge move but it def went a tick east. I do expect further nudges east since I don’t expect it to win a 90% compromise with the euro. We’ll see what GFS does here in a minute.
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Yea I just looked it up. Still uses it since 2019. I haven’t found the straight FV3 to be that similar to the gfs though.
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I don’t think so. They used to run a parallel version of GFS with an FV3 core I think, but I don’t think they are related in their current forms…I could be wrong though. @OceanStWx would be more up to date than me.
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I dunno if it has to be advisory. I could see this verifying as a low end warning for many but I’m currently a bit skeptical on anything over 8” at the moment. But if you get good snow growth (which has been pegged for some in this event), it won’t take a lot of QPF to verify warning. Like 0.4” of QPF might get you there.
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Keep us updated on the Korean model…maybe you can find a version of the CRAS that still runs.
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One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind.
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Feb 13th last year. Although parts of CT then rallied in the short term for a nowcast bust and got 8-12” anyway but a lot of us struggled to get 2-3”.
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Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up.
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Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming.
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If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models.
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He’s tempting me to post the meme….I might have to wear it out this threat.
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It would if we get a compromise that is skewed toward the euro (like 70/30 or 80/20). It would still be a pretty big hit for SNE but prob not widespread 1”+ QPF like we see on some of these runs.
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Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup.
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Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though.
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Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230.
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You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE.
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Difax machine is what spit out the old model panels before everyone had internet to just view them online. Almost any TV station, NWS office, and university weather department had them.
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Mean QPF did get a nice boost.
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They had no choice based on where 09z was.
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How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most.
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Don’t forget the FWC MOS….I think that’s what everyone called the NGM MOS back then.
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Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point.
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70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front.
