ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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06z backed off some. Still worth watching but feels like a whiff wide right.
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I’m not seeing this complete cave. It’s def moving NW but it still looks somewhat ragged and nothing like these bigger hits ala GFS. Euro tracks this well SE of ACK while GFS is over the cape.
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Not gonna be paste there. Maybe right at the onset but quickly will go to powder.
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Latitude becomes a bit of an issue in SE MA with what’s going on aloft and potential dryslotting. But even with that said, most non-RGEM guidance at least gives you advisory snows. Close to warning on a few models like GFS but there’s def gonna be a cutoff between places that get 4-8” and only 1-3” at the end.
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Here’s 48. Don’t really need 54h as it’s gone by then
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The rgem is the only model right now that is bad for him. It’s dicier further south down toward PYM.
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Canadian is buying next weekend too
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It works beyond 24h. I don’t think it’s much faster than pivotal these days. It used to be the first one out along with the old black and white maps from the environmental Canada site…but pivotal updates really fast now.
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That precip shield and thermal field is quite different. Don’t just look at the red L.
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Not a big move but a tick east and colder for those who were on the line on the 12z and 18z runs.
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I didn’t think it was a huge move but it def went a tick east. I do expect further nudges east since I don’t expect it to win a 90% compromise with the euro. We’ll see what GFS does here in a minute.
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Yea I just looked it up. Still uses it since 2019. I haven’t found the straight FV3 to be that similar to the gfs though.
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I don’t think so. They used to run a parallel version of GFS with an FV3 core I think, but I don’t think they are related in their current forms…I could be wrong though. @OceanStWx would be more up to date than me.
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I dunno if it has to be advisory. I could see this verifying as a low end warning for many but I’m currently a bit skeptical on anything over 8” at the moment. But if you get good snow growth (which has been pegged for some in this event), it won’t take a lot of QPF to verify warning. Like 0.4” of QPF might get you there.
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Keep us updated on the Korean model…maybe you can find a version of the CRAS that still runs.
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One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind.
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Feb 13th last year. Although parts of CT then rallied in the short term for a nowcast bust and got 8-12” anyway but a lot of us struggled to get 2-3”.
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Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up.
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Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming.
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If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models.
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He’s tempting me to post the meme….I might have to wear it out this threat.
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It would if we get a compromise that is skewed toward the euro (like 70/30 or 80/20). It would still be a pretty big hit for SNE but prob not widespread 1”+ QPF like we see on some of these runs.
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Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup.
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Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though.
