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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    That run annihilates the pike region.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks south of 06z so far.
  3. ORH_wxman
    First flakes are prob sometime after midnight on Thursday night.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is the first model to go north this cycle aside from the NAM....though not a surprise since the Ukie was obscenely cold at 00z. Looks pretty close to the rest of the non-NAM 12z models now.
  5. ORH_wxman
    The fact that all other 12z guidance is actually trending in the opposite of direction of the NAM makes it even less likely to believe the NAM than normal. I personally think the GFS is prob too cold, but the NAM is prob too warm. I'd expect them to converge.
  6. ORH_wxman
    All of those mesos are colder than the NAM....the NSSL one is too and so is the FV3....though I am tossing the FV3 until they figure it out. It's been too cold this winter....its even a lot colder than NSSL and ARW mesos.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Reggie went south too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    There will definitely be way less QPF if the vort is tracking into the St. Lawrence valley up north or northeast of Ontario. The Euro shifted north at 06z too....it's not like the 12z NAM but it tracked it over like southern Lake Ontario up toward Tug hill instead of BUF to ALB like the 00z run did.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I don't think you can toss it...other guidance may continue to shift north with the vort track too....but there's no reason to hug the NAM either.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I expect some northward ticks (I've been saying it for days actually)....but there's a difference in mere northward ticks and the 12z NAM. The question is does the NAM start coming back to other guidance...which I think it probably does. But maybe it scores a synoptic coup too.
  11. ORH_wxman
    NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone.
  13. ORH_wxman
    It would have been almost impossible for it not to be...it was so cold at 06z.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It was frigid at 06z. I’d be surprised if 12z came in as cold but it’s probably a red flag not to believe the NAM if it does.
  15. ORH_wxman
    It's like 2-4" down there now.
  16. ORH_wxman
    You can get like 5 to 1 sleet ratios if it’s really cold with a ton of pixie dust mixed in but that type of ratio usually doesn’t happen over a long period of sleet. Best to assume 2 to 1 or maybe 3 to 1 in a colder profile.
  17. ORH_wxman
    3-4” of sleet from half of round 1 QPF? That would be like 6 or 7 to 1 ratios just on sleet.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Wow you bailed on the NAM quickly.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s going to be hard not to get 4” even if it’s like 70-80% sleet for you. Getting over an inch of QPF is a good slug….2” of snow plus like 0.80” worth of sleet at 2 to 1 (and that may be conservative…could be 3 to 1 sleet ratios in this given the very cold layers below 800mb) gets you there already.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Model guidance has been really consistent on over 1” of QPF for SNE in this. There’s going to be some meat in the pack after this one.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Went back to a really far north vort track at 06z after starting to come in line with other guidance at 00z.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is frigid. Tries to keep it all snow for a chunk of CT too. 00z guidance definitely playing the confluence harder this cycle.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I feel like these are almost always dense baking powder. 12/16/07 was maybe an exception for 2 hours in the middle of it which helped with the positive bust (not totally because of ratios but busting through the DGZ helped cool the column better too) but even that one was sandwiched by dry cement on each side of it.
  25. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty cold rgem run considering 18z was pretty torchy.
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