ORH_wxman

I'll take 57 and drizzle over 92/70 any day unless I'm going to the beach or pool.

If you can have sun with low wind this time of the year, it's usually pretty nice. Even when it's cold. It's those nasty CAA windy cold shots that are the worst....that and CAD cold rain. Not looking forward to Thursday's CAA cold shot.

Nobody honestly knows about snow threats at this point anyway....people might pretend they do, but when you start shortening the wavelengths in March, it becomes even harder to see storms from more than a few days out. I mostly just look to see if there is a cold source that any potential system could tap into...and that ingredient seems to be there mid-month, so to me that says a legit storm could be possible. But can't say anything beyond that. It could just be a 42F day that warms your ass in the seat of the car too.

The pattern might bust, but that's probably got some solid cold shots in it if that look pans out. You don't load up Canada with huge negative anomalies like that and usually escape....sometimes you do, but most of the time you will not.

What's your prediction for the 3/10-3/17 period?

New normals though....we got rid of a lot of the cold 1980s summers when they updated the normals last year.

Can't call it on snow threats yet with the way the pattern looks after 3/10. Here's the 5 day mean for 00z 3/11 to 00z 3/16...way too much cold loading into the source region.

Unless we get CAD'd at the surface which is very possible. Then it's complete trash with maybe a little icing and cold rain.

Trough out west gets super deep....so the 3/5-3/8 period looks mostly like trash....maybe some brief 'bouts of winter wx on the front end, but I think mid-month (beyond 3/10) is a lot more likely for the next real winter threat.

Wow. Legit whiteout here

Sfc usually CADs, so yeah…they’d be 37 degree rainstorms with maybe a spike to 50 for a few hours before the front passes. Rinse repeat. That’s why I’ll root for snow well into March unless it’s the rare pattern that can support a 2010 or 2012 where we get lots of 60s and 70s. I have no use for 38 and rain or 48 and sunny. Delay the spring misery as long as possible.

Yep. Might as well get some threats in that pattern rather than talk about how nice the 47F faux warmth feels with -5C 850 temps….or actually freezing our balls off when the occasional -20c shot gets us.

GFS trying to make 3/5-6 interesting

EPS looks pretty cold going into mid-March but the period from like 3/5-3/8 or so looks torchy.

Lol…I always have told myself that if I become mobile to the point of being able to leave in the middle of a school year (so prob not until after my kids are older), I would flee this place in late March or early April and not return until maybe Memorial Day (maybe earlier if weather permits as you said). Just an abysmal time of the year around here.

Yeah that vortex needs to come south. As modeled right now it’s too warm. It lifts out on the next panel or two and allows the western storm to cut.

What a weenie EPS run today

Lol. Probably. Although GGEM wasn’t far off from that. Maybe a tenth less LE across the board. GfS looks a little disorganized.

Ukie is pretty aggressive for the 3/2-3/3 clipper. Basically turns it into a high end advisory/low end warning event.

“40s” referred to seasonal total. Not percent of normal. A low 40s total in ORH is like 60% of average.

Bluebird day after 9.5”. Always fun for the kids

Yeah once you dryslot above 700mb, it gets difficult to maintain heavy rates. We saw the snow continue most of yesterday but the truly heavy stuff down in SNE and S NH shut off late morning once the 500-700 layer dryslot punched through. Probably a good nugget to keep in the back of our minds on the next one.

I think you need to use standard deviation to really determine ratter status. Some places hardly ever get under 50% of their average. ORH hasn’t had a winter below 50% of their average since 1999-2000 when they had 30.2”. But years like 2001-2002, 2011-2012, and 2015-2016 all had in the 40s and I’d consider them ratters.

ORH had 0.95” (but 8.2” of snow so it was dense) but that’s the closest I found to an inch for first order sites. Didn’t see cocorahs down here yet. But yeah, this was a little underperforming on the QPF. I was pretty sure there would be a stripe of 12-15” amounts from this but I was wrong. I figured as the strong ML warm front slowed and then slid east, someone on the north side of that would just get croaked but it seems like it just couldn’t maintain intensity as it did that. We’ve seen these types of 12”+ amounts previously when you get the whole thing slowing and then sliding east (2/5/14 or 12/19/08).

Yeah you’d prob need like a moderate storm of 6-10” and then cash in on a big dog of 12-18”+. Maybe another smaller nuisance event or two mixed in there somewhere before mid-April and there’s your 30”+ to get you to normal.