ORH_wxman

18z GFS way south now....lol.

Yeah I don't really like that storm very much for winter wx...could change, but it seems too early in the pattern shift for a good snow event. Our window of potential is more between 3/12-3/20 IMHO....prob centered in the 3/13-3/17 time range.

GFS might be interesting for 3/10

Yeah I remember the torch March talk a couple weeks back. This early March cold period is actually verifying pretty nicely, but we couldn't get anything to amplify into the cold.... We'll see if the reload mid-month bears fruit. Almost reminds me a little of how Mar 2007 unfolded. We started the month brutally cold (colder than this outbreak....it was breaking records). Then we had a big relaxation between the 10th and 15th or so. I even remember being near 70F a couple days before the big 3/16-17/07 storm. Then we went cold again for the storm and up until the final week when we torched again. We snuck in another small event on 3/24 before it torched.

Winter hill this morning

Monday is toast for us....enjoy the rain. NNE could cash in on that. After Monday we could get something....some guidance trying for 3/12 but I feel like more toward 3/14-3/15 period is a better setup.

Seems like the pike was pretty close to the dividing line. 925 was pretty dicey south of that. AWT.

Almost an inch on winter hill.

That anniversary date (3/13) looks pretty favorable right now. Another pretty good storm happened on that date too 25 years before that. Hopefully we get one more biggie to track.

3/12-3/20 is definitely the time frame for something decent. I’d punt 3/7-8 south of NNE. That one looks putrid.

925 is really marginal south of the pike. Could go either way.

EPS has a western ridge spike around 3/14-3/15....if we've got one more big dog left this season, that's probably the most likely period to get it....tons of cold around too when that happens. We'll see how this looks in another few days.

Today's guidance is breaking it down a little faster than yesterday too.....so I think we have about a 7-8 day window between 3/12-3/20 IMHO. Any western ridging during that period will have to be watched since there will be plenty of cold loading already. Things could obviously change again, but as of now, that looks like the prime period if we have one more big dog threat in us....STJ down south is still ejecting shortwaves too from time to time....so if we can line up all the ducks, then there's a chance.

The block is over the Bering strait prior to 3/10...it rolls into a more favorable position after that further east. It might not be technically as strong as it is on 3/9 or 3/10 (though we won't know for sure until we are closer), but it's effectively more potent there in terms of impacting our sensible wx.

Yeah way up north might be able to salvage 3/7.....we'll see.

Aside from maybe a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow tonight, close the shades until after 3/10....the pattern still does look quite good after that point though. I'd be surprised if we don't have another legit threat. May not pan out, but hard to see not having a threat or two.

Been getting weenie flakes here for the past 10-15 min.

Seems like the blocking goes nuclear after the 9th or 10th though. I think we'll have chances mid-month...but I agree. If we could have kept this weekend south and added to the snow pack, it would have added to the wintry appeal...but when you are dealing with a White Snake winter, you take what you can get. Deal with the meltouts.

Fixed your post.

Yeah those are your personal preferences. They just aren't everyone's. When I was in Texas, it was not nearly as bad to tolerate playing golf midday in the summer when I went to courses northwest of Austin in 100F heat with dews in the 50F range as it was when I'd play further east when it was 94/73. The latter was so much more taxing on the body.

I don't want 57 and overcast or drizzle...I just said I'd take it over nasty 90s with 70s dews. Ideal weather is warm and dry. I play golf. I hike. I take my kids outdoors a lot to ride bikes and playgrounds. Those all suck ASS in hot and humid weather just as much as 50s does (hiking actually might be way better with temps in the 50s).

If RGEM is correct, then I could see a nicer looking swath of snow....but GFS is bringing the low almost on top of me so I'd expect the best to be north....there will be a band of WAA precip ahead of it, but it's not as ideal as something like the RGEM which would prob have a quasi-stationary band somewhere down in SNE. If we can trend everything south another tick, then maybe it gets interesting for potential advisory snows.

Spring is mostly dogshit around here....it's somewhat better where you are being WOR and southwest, but out east, it's usually trying to put lipstick on a pig when hyping up spring. Once in a while we get a great one, but usually I'm expecting pretty regular rounds of garbage weather (sheet drizzle, cold rain, lot of clouds, etc)

Seems like precip might be a bit showery with the best forcing to the north in NNE....but can't rule out an inch or two....esp interior hills.