ORH_wxman

It depends how much production increases. It's hard to just "turn on" production because it won't be immediate. We need to drill more and that takes some time. It would prob take 6-12 months to see differences. We actually have pretty good production right now as a result of the massive increase in fracking in the last 7-10 years (we tripled our domestic oil production between mid-2000s and 2018). The big drop in oil prices between 2013 and 2015 was much in part due to the big supply increase on the market due to US fracking. We haven't really expanded drilling though in the past 3-5 years. The low crude oil prices post-2014 (until recently) have made new drilling more cost-prohibitive. A lot of rigs that made good money when oil was $75 per barrel in 2014 became harder to make money on when crude oil dropped below $50 per barrel. So many of the oil companies didn't drill new wells when prices went down. They just continued to pump from existing wells drilled in the 2012-2015 period. You could see market prices drop though if an expected increase in production was signaled. Market forces often respond to expectations in addition to just current supply.

Ukie and GGEM are trying to give NNE a lot of snow for the weekend system. They are flattening it out just a bit and pushing it east before it amplifies. The Ukie even gets decent snow into the northwest parts of SNE. Not really biting on those solutions yet, but something to watch. Hopefully NNE can get this colder to help with the March skiing.

Canada pays about a 1.25 per gallon in taxes on their gasoline whereas the United States is more like 45-50 cents....Canada also gets most of their refined RBOB from the United States despite drilling a lot of their own oil (they send to to the US refineries), so they have to pay extra transportation costs which become larger when the price of crude oil is higher.

Back in 2008, it was around 4-4.25 a gallon when it was noticeable in behavior changes, so probably something similar this time too except maybe a little more to account for inflation of income/wages since 2008. I'd guess when the national average hits 4.50-5.00, you'll start seeing changes. They are more visible in the summer when people travel than they would be in the spring.

The price of crude oil will become self-correcting....as it gets more expensive, it incentivizes oil and gas companies to spend the money for new drilling. It sucks in the short term though when the price goes bonkers like it is right now.

Yeah it could easily be garbage...if it's too weak, then it'll just be light snow with a coating to maybe a couple inches in the higher terrain or could even still be mostly a whiff if it trends back much weaker....but if it trends a little stronger, then it's a real system. There's still a couple days to go and it's been steadily trending a bit stronger each run the past few cycles which is why it is now getting some snow in here instead of completely whiffing like previously.

Actually gave your 'hood 3-4" but SE MA had like 5"...might be too aggressive, but it's a nice fronto band. Sfc wil be warm at the start, but it would wetbulb quickly. This isn't one of those spring isothermal soundings. 925mb is quite cold actually (like -4 to -5C)

RGEM is pretty solid for SE MA and RI.

NAM gets a fronto band into SNE...could drop a couple inches.

My high temp might be midnight.

It's all good...Ray can settle for cleaning 3" off his car Thursday morning.

Mar '58 redux? Around the same date too.

Wed night/Thu morning is def trending back north. Limiting factor is the weak vort but the vort track itself is pretty good for SNE. If it trends a little stronger then we’re in for a solid advisory event. If it trends weaker then maybe just a few snow showers or even nothing.

This will be funny to bump when we get another -3 April.

What April events gave DC to NYC a foot of snow? I’m talking the 95 corridor there, not interior hills. I can’t think of a single one in the last 50 years. April ‘82 got NYC but south of there didn’t get much. You’d prob have to go back to like the famous April 1915 blizzard.

70F ELM and 71F PEO and 69F at ITH….my old college stomping grounds would be enjoying the faux spring day.

How often do double digit events to the valley floor out in S MA and N CT happen in very late March or April? It’s prob like a 1 in 30 or 40 year return rate. The only ones I can think of that gave double digits to the valley floor there were April ‘97 and April ‘82. Might have to go all the way back to April 1924 to get the next one. All those post-3/24 events from 1996, 1987, 1984, 1970, 1958, 1956, 1967, etc did not bring widespread double digits to the valley floor there.

Yep. I filled up last week for 3.40ish and yesterday the same place was almost a dollar more. 4.28.

He calls for March 2012 every single year now.

Yeah there were a couple euro runs that blasted us in eastern areas…I found this Ukie run saved on my phone. Some of the euro runs were similar or even more bullish….it was only for a couple cycles but those cycles happened inside of 48 hours so we had a reason to believe it was trending hard into a big storm but then it trended back east

That’s a cutter look. Prob a deep wrapped up storm up in Ontario somewhere with that H5 plot. Behind it around 3/15 is the window I’d be looking at.

There was another storm on 3/12/05 but it was nowhere near a blizzard. Maybe he was thinking of that one. It was actually a storm trying to escape east and dumped a large area of 8-12” over the interior with a bit of an IVT enhancement.

Nice 3/8/05 redux on the 06z GFS. Euro was a snooze fest though.

We had a high of like 25F in full sun with zero pack in April during that cold outbreak. It’s really hard to beat that. It was brutally windy too. The only max temps on record colder than that in ORH were on snowy days or days with fresh snow cover.

Yea I remember that. It missed us south. 4/8/95 I think. It was after that ridiculous cold outbreak we got on 4/5 and 4/6