ORH_wxman

Should start ripping there within the next 20-30 min

Radar looks pretty good...I'd expect widspread advisory amounts for anyone over 200-300 feet and maybe down lower....esp as sun goes down and eastward.

Basically been nothing here for an hour at least...maybe more. Just a few weenie flakes.

Tolland CT

Crush job for NNE on the 12z Euro....looked really good for many up there.

We might end up in a bit of screwjie....best band to the north and the low level stuff to the south, but maybe we get lucky with a really good band near the ML dryslot.

Very light snow here...prob 2-3 mile vis to start, Can tell the lowest levels are still a bit dry. Hopefully we get an update from CT soon on the conditions there....

Yeah I think some of those spots are gonna put up a 6+ burger...they'll have the snow growth and temps below freezing at the sfc so I won't be shocked to see some 20ish to 1 ratio fluffer numbers there.

We literally talked about CT almost non-stop for this event since the best looked like down there....only recently in the past 2-3 cycles did the potential for the jackpot shift north....it's like if the focus goes off CT for more thna a few posts, you can't take it.

Kevin whines non-stop anytime people talk about areas outside of northern CT.

Yeah prob starts there around 1...maybe a little sooner. Hasn't started here yet either. Having the bulk after 3pm will definitely help with the sun angle issues, though anyone inside those heavier bands will overwhelm the sun angle. But certainly for when it lightens up a bit, it's good to have the sun lower.

PSF reporting heavy snow now in that band

They have a couple additional advantages....some elevation and the best snows there won't be until after 3-4pm, so they will be doing it with the sun getting low in the sky.

Someone up in N ORH county or monads is gonna get a little fluff bomb I think...maybe back to N Berks and Mitch in S VT too. Best H7 fronto sort of goes right along the pike and a little north of that is where the jack will be IMHO....really good crosshair sig up in that area too.

The stuff out in PA is really where the best forcing is....and you can see it on the obs too, lots of 1/4 and 1/2 SM obs

There’s going to be a band up north somewhere (whether it’s the pike, rt 2, or near the NH border) that probably does better than forecasts. Prob like a 6” fluff job because the crosshair sig is really good there.

06z runs are coming in pretty zonked so far after 00z was a bit tame.

Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires.

Time to see if Euro is going to pull of the coup or not like the old days. I ain’t buying it. I bet it goes back west.

The extremely low dews are the sign that the airmass is pretty cold from a wetbulb perspective. Pretty classic for March actually.

Not surprised it's cooling a bit at the sfc....925 is pretty damned cold to be supporting 33-34F at the sfc.

Most of that was already priced into the market the last few days when we saw the initial spike. It’s hard to say exactly how high it goes because the market can be irrational for periods of time even though it eventually settles onto the supporting fundamentals. There’s multiple variables too…is opec going to pump more? Will the United States signal that they are going to ramp up their own production going forward? Does the world economy stay tanking? (All of those would act to try and bring prices down)

12z EPS

Tries to prolong it too in the evening with that nice closed off low at 925 and almost does it at 850

Euro may have trended even a little more SE for Saturday from 00z, but pretty close. That would actually be interesting for many. But want to see a bit more support before really buying something like that.