ORH_wxman

It actually looks cold. Definitely could support a snow threat in the final week. But absent a snow threat it’s useless cold.

Pattern looks like dogshit for the rest of the month.

We did worse, but I still had around 4" of paste or so. ORH had around 7".

Yeah that's fine.....and I'm just telling you that you actually have no idea if we'll get another event or not....not that you will be wrong in your prediction. For your area, you are prob like 50/50 not to see any more accumulating snowfall....up where I am, I'm probably favored to see it again.

My worst winter in the past 25 years actually had accumulating snowfall on 4/26.....April 26, 2000. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2000/us0426.php

The other winters were rats too....so yeah, this is unserious voodoo.

Yeah, it's just weird he's using the logic "this winter has been bad, so that means any late season threat will fall apart" in a non-joking manner.....lol. I mean, we've had plenty of late season events in garbage winters (April 2020, April 2016 (2 events actually), late Mar and Apr 2007, late Mar 2002, Apr 1997, etc, etc)

This sounds like voodoo gibberish.

Definitely a masshole from Revere

She probably did more to help disadvantaged communities in a year with her outreach than most people do in their lifetimes. You are still coming across as an asshole in this thread.

The larger scale features are interesting on the 12z runs....you have the massive PV lobe acting as the 50/50 low in Labrador/New Foundland and a trough ejecting out of the central CONUS. I'd like the trough to be a little more organized....seems kind of disjointed a little and positively tilted, but those are details we know can change easily at this lead time

It was...mostly just January and a few fleeting periods in February. I'm still annoyed at December where the pattern wasn't that far from being really good. We just somehow managed to get a -20 sigma PNA when a merely solidly negative PNA would have been fine.

Wow that sounds almost like a carbon copy of ORH in 1996-1997 going into the blizzard....I think ORH had 54.5" going into the '97 storm. Then 33" from the blizzard.

Yeah really convoluted blocky setup....could support something pretty big, but it would also be no surprise at all if we got nothing out of it.

Yeah I was gonna mention that one but we were focusing on big late season storms in crappy winters....and '81-'82 was a good winter even before the April blizzard. At any rate, GFS is still interested in the threat late next week.

I went to Sunday River that year....they got buried in late January and February 1997.

While it's nothing compared to 1997, April 2016 also had a very cold moderate snow event after a garbage season. 1944 also had a pretty large storm around the equinox after a pathetic winter.

I'm not sure if missing out on a moderate event in late March is a defining feature of a rat season.

Both times it happened to me here was in early May. They just mangled them and bent the metal posts they were on as if they were a paper clip. The power it must have taken was impressive.

Still gotta watch late next week/next weekend....guidance all over the place on that car crash in the north atlantic giving us a 50/50 low and a big trough ejecting from the central CONUS. Could get interesting....it could easily fail too, but worth keeping an eye on for now.

Mish Michaels went to my alma mater for meteorology. Maybe 11-12 years before me. I met her at in 2002 at the storms conference. Very kind woman. She was always doing outreach programs around Boston helping kids get into science and weather. Tragic loss.

AWT

Decades in forecasting...an analog is just something comparable to another thing. You can use any variable you want for an analog. The analogs were more primitive the further back you go. Some mets would just look at fall temps and precip and compare those to past years. In the late 1980s/1990s, ENSO probably became the major factor in analogs. It became the primary factor once certain distinct patterns were showing up on ENSO that often repeated themselves. (such as cooler wx in the southeast US and warmer in the upper plains during El Ninos) Now we have better observations of solar, QBO, snow cover, etc. New England itself is tougher IMHO because we have a low correlation with ENSO and many other variables compared to places like the southeast or northern plains or Pacific northwest. That's why I have never really attempted seasonal forecasting for winter in New England....but I applaud those who try. Someone will eventually find a better way to forecast here in advance.

You can actually do a pretty decent seasonal forecast without looking at a single model....most will look at ENSO conditions along with solar, QBO, etc. Those are real-time obs so they don't require models. But you cannot do a skilled seasonal forecast without looking at past seasons (i.e. analogs). We have to look at them to know how variables like ENSO affect the pattern.

There's no such thing as seasonal forecasting without looking at past seasons....unless you are just going to rip and read a CFS or ECMWF seasonal forecast.