ORH_wxman

If you're trying to get a good late season snow event, best window on the EPS is for 3/31ish......the synoptic pieces are all there (big Davis Strait block, 50/50 low, and trough moving into the OH Valley)

He's been trying the Kevin reverse psych angle for like a week-plus now. If he keeps saying it will never happen, maybe it will? But yeah, even though this is a pretty good pattern coming up for a late season snow threat, you still need a lot to go right...esp down there. Not as hard for a place like ORH county or NW MA. Most will at least see flakes this weekend though under that ULL for Saturday/Sunday.

It was later than that....pretty sure it was 4/12/13

Get ready for some bare ground and teens next week when walking out the door. At least in years like 2017 and 2018, I still had a deep snow pack at this point, so it wasn't all bad having cold....but I Agree this is probably the absolute worst.

No it could absolutely deliver a winter threat. It’s below normal heights and below normal temps but you can easily get 38F rain on that in late March and early April.

EPS looks like a ‘rhea pattern all the way to the end of the run.

Nothing was worse than April '95 IMHO....that was the worst. Full sun with bare ground on April 5th but a high in the mid 20s with 30-40mph CAA gusts. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0405.php

I agree....we've had relatively few "deep CAD" events....where you have strong CAD in the 850-sfc layer and it's torching higher up. It seems those types of events have trended more strung out the past couple winters so they don't end up as mixed....we had a few down here this winter, but the mix zones were relatively narrow with maybe the exception of the 2/4 event. But that kind of matches the longwave pattern....we've had some crappy Pacific setups where the NAO muted the torch at times....like last January/early Feb and this past December where we had a trough digging down to Cabo but a big -NAO block that ground everything to a pulp.

Too bad we couldn't see one more panel on the Euro....guidance has definitely been targeting month-end to 4/2 range as winter storm potential.

I think it's happened more recently....we had some pretty nice springs for a while from '08-'12 and then we kind of paid the piper back....though last year wasn't bad. But we had some horrific ones back in 2020, 2018, 2016.

Lol...that was an epic IPA-infused meltdown you had. I was claiming the final week of the month looked cold and that this month would end up colder than 2021, 2020, and 2016 and you absolutely lost it. Powderfreak had a perfect breakdown of it...I'd have to go back and find it.

That's been signaled for a a few cycles now...as soon as I saw that westward NAO block slowly decaying on ensemble guidance, i was thinking "here comes the wheel o 'rhea".....hopefully there's enough cold to make it snow instead of 37F rain and drizzle like would happen 2+ week later in the spring. April '96 had a similar look with that ULL spinning in place that managed to produce 2 storms out of the same trough....so you never know.

The CAD is pretty deep....so you may get some sleet....the sfc winds are not strong and out of the E or NE. It will be interesting to see your obs.

Wow thats a solid 3-4F step change. Makes sense now on that +8 monthly anomaly....tossed.

Just give us one more good snow event....it's already a lock to be shitty and cold so we might as well cash in sometime next week or next weekend.

Mass plant die-off next week with -20C 850 temps?

No it's still there. Very blocky look for month-end. There's nothing imminent though, so not really worth commenting too much. There's an outside chance at something around D5-6 (there's some wave-spacing issues though), but I think the better chance is more like D8-10 assuming the block holds....it could just lift out too though like the OP GFS did today.

It's tough love...he's given many opportunities to tone down his posts but refuses to take the hints.

Deep insight that can only be found on Americanwx Forums.

Yeah that's a very deep H5 anomaly just south of us. Also, EPS/GEFS have a pretty nice 'rhea signal for early April with a decaying west-based -NAO.

IPA bottles everywhere all over the coach and floor.

The reason you get a lot of resistance is for posts like these. Do you look at any data or just decide to post and hope it’s not spectacularly inaccurate? 1. There’s a decent chance that this March is actually colder than 2020 and 2021. Throw in 2016 too if you want yet another year that this one won’t beat post-2012. 2. All guidance is signaling a return to colder weather the final week of the month.

How fast is it moving? Like 1mph? It was almost to the pike around noontime…and at 6pm, BAF-ORH-BOS all socked in with northerly wind flags.

The clouds and precip are the big killers in spring. If it’s sunny, you can usually get away with a nice day unless it’s one of those strong CAA airmasses with lots of wind…then it sucks.