ORH_wxman

That’s the biggest problem with May and early June. It’s akin to winter in late November and very early December. Yes, we can definitely get snow and cold during that period but it’s almost never sustained enough to keep a pack around and there’s a lot of years we get nothing at all during that period except maybe a couple chilly days here and there to remind you that the seasons are changing…but nobody would call it deep winter when you have a couple days below freezing mixed with a cutter and a downslope dandy torch day. Same applies to summer season. We can easily pick off a few mid 80s (and 90+ in the torch downslope spots) in late May and early June but so frequently it will be mixed in with some 52F clunkers on an east wind and some years we don’t even sniff the heat until mid/late June at all. Those 73-76F days are awesome, don’t get me wrong because I’d love to keep that all summer, but nobody would really call it deep summer where you go to the beach and pools just like nobody is confusing highs around 40 near T-day as deep winter.

July and August are usually pretty summery, but we aren't discussing that part of summer....it was late may and early June. This is like claiming our winters are pretty cold and snowy after someone called you out for saying Thanksgiving is deep winter.

You dont have any credibility on these discussions. You try to tell us November is deep winter each year.

These types of cold shots after big warmups earlier in the month are when I'm glad most of the trees around here won't start budding early. It usually looks like a nuclear crater here until at least the 3rd or 4th week of April and I doubt that will change this year looking at the pattern over the next 2 weeks. In 2017, we didn't get much green at all until May. I wasn't here in 2012, so that would've been interesting to see. Ditto 2010. Those two years had the earliest leaf-out in ORH I ever remember.

Late June was usually fine....but early June was like an ice bath.

My cousins had a pool with a solar cover when i was growing up....the few times it was even open around Memorial day or the first week in June, it felt like diving into Glacier Bay Alaska even if it was 85-90 outside. Pool season is two months here unless you have a heater or get lucky enough to avoid nights in the 40s in the first couple weeks of September.

Massachusetts is fine for the most part. It’s in the state constitution that they need a balanced budget. There’s still accounting gimmicks that go on to produce that every year…MA has some fairly high pension fund liabilities years down the road but they aren’t nearly as bad as states like Illinois/CT/NJ in that department.

Lol at playing up late May/early June in New England as deep summer. Listen to some of yourselves.

That is sort of fake because of the Covid funds. There’s a lot of states with very bad structural long term deficits that will need major overhauls to close those future obligations.

We had TTs around 60 in the 1/28/10 WINDEX event. The main reason it was so prolific. You had saturation up higher than 500mb. Similar look today except we might not have quite as much lift focused along one area…but the higher lapse rates in the low levels can make up for some of that. Id expect any potent storms or squalls to be frozen precip whether it’s graupel/hail or just flipping to straight snow in the higher terrain.

June can really suck sometimes. Esp the first 2 weeks. Usually it’s summer by late June but we’ve had some epically bad days in recent years early month. I think it might have been 2015 when we had back to back highs in the 40s early in the month.

Yeah I’ve actually been on the “first week of April” bandwagon for several days now on a period of interest. Despite the 3/31 system cutting, the blocking pattern remains supportive for a late season threat.

Guidance is now CADing us for the 3/31 event today....figured it would trend into that trash....couldn't even get a nice warm sector out of the cutter.

Let’s break some record low maxes for Monday. ORH record is 28F and BOS record is 33F.

No the longwave pattern is still pretty similar. The storm is there it just cuts well west because of some phasing with the PV lobe in central Canada. It was a period of interest given the pattern but we never got a legit threat out of it.

Yeah we never had a distinct threat. We had a decent synoptic pattern for 3/31ish but big phasing in central US is going to make that a cutter. There’s still plenty of residual blocking though behind that system so I wouldn’t be surprised if a threat does materialize the first week of April.

Most of Boston’s 25” fell in about 7-8 hours. It was insane overnight.

This winter had way too many cutters. We didn't really have a signature period where we were solid cold....even some past rats have had that like Jan 2000 or even Feb '95....this year we couldn't sustain anything. January could've been exceptional had that BGM-track storm on 1/17 been a further east track like might happen the other 99 times out of 100 we simulate that pattern. Then it would've been basically been from 1/7 until month-end of snow/cold combo.

Gonna have to watch for very intense localized snow squalls too into Saturday night....esp high terrain. The lapse rates are crazy insane for a cold season event. This is the ORH sounding at 03z Saturday evening

You’re talking Boxing Day 2010 right? That was a good one for BOS. They had the CF jackpot. You might be thinking of 12/29/12 which was a lot of rain there and we had 8-10” over the interior. There was also a storm a few days before that on 12/26-27/12 that was a snow to ice situation over the interior but mostly rain on the coast.

Boxing day was good where scooter was. CF nailed them and up into BOS. Firehose storm was about 15” where I was working in BOS at the time but I think Logan airport had closer to 12-13”.

They were dumb enough to start getting buds early....they deserve my wrath of anger during useless late season cold.

Honestly, I'd rather have the -20C 850s if the alternative is "mundane" -15C 850 temps. Might as well try and go for a daily record if it's going to be cold....it's not like getting a high of 35F with wind is going to salvage this dogshit from being any less annoying....might as well be 25F and tag 2022 as the daily record for that date.

We definitely might sneak in a nape-tanner on Friday if we can clear out well. Saturday is a little more iffy to me.....classic self-destructive sunshine day where it might start decent in the morning, but then by early afternoon, we're popping showers....some prob graupel or snow showers in high terrain. Maybe eastern areas near the coast might hold that off until later in the afternoon as the deep ULL affects the western zones sooner.

Wouldn't surprise me if we had a threat well into April too....like the first week-plus of the month looks ripe too. I'm bracing for mostly dogshit, but hopefully we can get the stars to line up on one of them.