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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah the blizzard here was pretty good too even though we didn't get into the max zone....but hard to complain about 18.5". I actually thought I was going to end up around 14 or 15 inches, but it just kept going into the evening with those rotting bands over us so that was a nice finish to the event. If I had gotten less than 15" from that storm, I'd prob lower the seasonal grade to a D+, but 18"+ storms don't grow on trees despite what George from Foxborough tells us. 43" is pretty bad for that area...is that total for PWM or GYX? It would be even worse if it was GYX since I'd suspect their climo is a solid 10" more than PWM. Your area to SE NH and back into interior CNE is due for a big winter. I'm guessing these past 4 years are the worst 4 year stretch since the late 1990s there. '18-'19 was decent but it was better more into NNE (like Sunday River-Phin/Alex-BTV axis) than it was in CNE.
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I’ll give it a C- here. Though I considered a D+, but I can’t give it a grade that low when I’m just over 55” here for the season and climo is in the low/mid 60s. But there were way too many cutters this winter which prevented my pack from ever reaching 20” and in my subjective grading I weight the holiday period a little extra which was mostly garbage (although we did get an inch of snow on Xmas Eve which produced a white Xmas). I also did get 4 warning events though which is ok (1/7, 1/29, 2/13-14, and 2/25). Winter hill would get a D+ though since they did worse in the 2/13 event, blizzard, and the 1/7 event and their climo is already a higher starting point.
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Yeah that actually looked really nice on the long range. I fully expect it to disintegrate as we get closer though.
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Yeah ORH could get some Sunday too. Might be too warm but it wouldn’t be shocking either if they latently cool enough at 1000 feet to get a quick half inch or something.
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I think the only other time I've experienced an established winter pack (so that rules out years like '97 where it was freshly falling) that looked like that on 4/1 here was 2001....some years like 2018, 2017, and 2013 (and maybe even 2005?) had snow cover still leftover but it wasn't full-on pack everywhere...it was typical sun torched areas bare with woods and shaded regions holding old pack.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
You are arguing against a strawman. Exactly zero of my posts said it would finish below normal for the month. I clearly stated that the end of the month had a cold pattern and that the month would finish colder than multiple years since 2012 debunking your claim that this would be the warmest March since 2012. After I posted those things, you went on a rampage of posts with beer cans flying everywhere. IPA caps found in the couch cushions days later. -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
You literally told me how off the deep end I was replying to my post about how there were several Marches since 2012 that would be warmer than 2022 and also how "blues don't mean cold" when I said the end of the month would be cold. Take the L dude.... -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Time for verification: For BDL or ORH (doesn't matter which one he picks), March 2022 will come in colder than March 2021, 2020, and 2016. Don't need to post numbers for the cold in the final week of the month....everyone knows it was cold (broke or tied daily record maxes at all SNE first order sites a few days ago). -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Just like Morch 2012 -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
3rd consecutive pathetic March here....we managed to do ok in 2019 largely on the back of the 3/4/19 system. We're now paying for that good stretch of Marches we had 2013-2019....though down here 2014 was brutal...while you were getting buried up there, we had the frigid cold but not much snow as most of the storms skillfully avoided dropping snow here despite frigid temps on each side of them. -
Also a top 10 coldest March in New England which didn't hurt the pack retention up there....didn't crack a March that cold region-wide again until we did it in 2014 30 years later.
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That front-running system is the reason the big one was as good as it was. It kept the trailing larger 3/31 shortwave south enough to close off in a great spot for SNE.
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The Bruins pull-over starter jacket is epic. LOL Yeah, I wish we had the more modern-looking radar, but even on that loop you can see a ton of 30+ dbz just destroying eastern/central MA and RI for long periods of time....it doesn't take long to add up when you have dbz over 30. We had TSSN when I was getting out of school around 2:15pm....the light was almost a purplish tint likely due to how heavy the snow was and being near peak sun angle...the thunder was only about 4-5 seconds behind so it was less than a mile away. We actually got into a sucker hole for about 90 minutes to 2 hours between roughly 4pm and 6pm. But even at the time I wasn't worried about it because you could see the firehose starting to set up on radar...just ripping out of the ESE from SE MA and RI. What an epic storm that was. I agree that would be crazy on the forums nowadays with the real-time obs of rain flipping to snow. My guess is modern NWP would predict the change-over better than back then. It would still probably happen faster than model guidance predicts though because when you have heights crashing like that, often the model guidance just can't latently cool the atmosphere fast enough compared to reality.
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Yep…late March is often the “secret” for New England skiing. Most of my best days have come in March. Photos look great everyone…thanks for sharing. I didn’t get out this season which was a bummer but I’ll definitely be getting out next year. My son is ready to hit the slopes for the first time.
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Such an amazing storm. Rain was forecasted to change to snow around early to mid afternoon in ORH. When we started mixing around 930 and flipped completely by 10am, I figured it was going to overperform. But I had no idea just how much it would eventually dump.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I was in the grand canyon in July 1991. I couldn’t believe the heat down in the canyon. Then a ranger told us it was actually a bit cooler than usual. I remember looking it up years later and he was right. The southwest was cooler than usual that month. Lol. But it’s all relative. 105 felt hot down in the canyon even if 110 was normal. -
The microburst in Southborough is always really weird to me in that storm. But it was definitely legit. Pretty fun getting blizzard conditions and then a microburst hits.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Excellent...might as well set some records if it's going to be like this. -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Congrats to the WOR crowd...cool streamer. -
March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Snowing lightly here, but no real accumulation....not heavy enough...a few little areas of coating where it swirls into a corner. -
Yeah and they will come down some as interest rates rise.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Do you remember late March 1998? I think we hit mid 80s even in ORH during that stretch. Some spots in the CP must have been flirting close to 90F. We went to the Cape to visit my grandparents that Saturday (I think day 2 of the heat dome) and got greeted with 47F and a stiff southwest breeze…even with sun still shining. What an absolute disaster that was. Then of course you prob remember how that heat ended with the backdoor CF from hell. Think we went into the 30s on 4/1 after a cheap midnight high in the 60s of what must have felt like a balmy early summer evening….then seeing 37F stratiform rain and a stiff northeast breeze during the day. -
5% is still pretty low historically speaking. But it’s high for recent years. There’s a good chance it will rise even more and it will start affecting the housing market. We haven’t been above 5% since during the mortgage crisis in the mid-2000s.
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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yeah I’d agree with this. The ocean is a real detriment the further east you go (and on the south coast of RI). A place like SW CT will absolutely avoid the dogshit days better than us. I’ve seen some days where it’s 85 there and 50s are banked up against the ORH hills and everyone to the east of that. Or you get those days where it’s 80F at 11am in eastern MA but by 2pm it’s 63F on an east wind while people in the CT river valley are jumping in pools at 88F.