ORH_wxman

Yeah genuine cougar sightings are very rare in New England and of the real ones, most of them are escaped captives, though occasionally you get a wild one from the west like the one that was killed in CT on a highway in 2011 that had traveled all the way from South Dakota. They are usually young nomadic males that travel that far.

Yeah this look is totally fine for early/mid November....you can see -WPO/-PNA pattern with EPO near neutral on the 5 day mean for Nov 5-10. This pattern would naturally get better as wavelengths lengthen.

Bottom prob not until sometime middle of next year would be my educated guess. Gotta see how the housing market affects things too...that is nearing a cliff at the moment. Bottom prob gonna drop out if we see UnEmp tick up to like 5%.....combined with fix 30 year already around 7%. But UnEmp prob not gonna tick up until we see another big drop in market and subsequent credit squeeze.

Never had squirrel but I like gamey meat so I'd prob be fine with it. I've eaten rabbit.

Eh, not really....it can if the piggy isn't in the worst spot and not very deep. But typically a +EPO/+PNA pattern is not cold. You can time an event in that pattern, but you'd rather have at least some cross polar flow.

Yeah my boys were trick or treating in the upper 20s and full snow cover 2 years ago, lol. That was ridiculous. We should stay dry this year hopefully....rain holds off until the next day.

Agreed and I'm totally good with it....I want the shift to a colder pattern (AK ridging and perhaps linking with +PNA) to wait until later November so we can actually take advantage of it better. Time it so that pattern peaks in sometime in December rather than 3 weeks earlier.

Weeklies don't get rid of the AK piggy until about mid-month.

Pig roast....awesome. My kind of party. Congrats Ginxy.

Yeah I'd agree. ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do.

I think it was tamarack who said he had a ton of sun in September compared to usual so that is the other key ingredient. We’ve had a lot of clear crisp days the past few weeks and plenty of marginal frosts.

The typical recipe for good color is supposed to be decent rainfall in 2nd half of summer and then lots of sun and cool/crisp nights in September/early October. We had the nasty dry spell early this summer but as you said, we did start to fix that beginning in august so that might have been the key to good foliage this year. I do agree with you this year has been really good for foliage. Color seems exceptionally vibrant.

Oaks are def ahead of schedule here. Maybe by like a week or so. We’ve had a lot of ideal nights for color…you want those marginal frost/crisp cold nights but not full freeze which is what we’ve had here. The hard freeze will cause the leaves to just drop quicker but you don’t get as long a color show.

Lake effect areas and upslope areas are by far the best spots for early season snow....the upslope kind of feeds off the leftover lake effect too...esp in VT where they can regenerate dying bands and a boost form Lake Champlain too. In early season, your delta-Ts on the lake temps vs atmosphere are still huge, so you get some prolific stuff at times, and even non-idea setups produce more than they do in mid-winter. In my time out in Ithaca, you could count on accumulating snow relatively frequently starting in mid/late November right until Xmas break when we went home. Synoptic snows don't start becoming more reliable until mid-December usually and for southeastern coastal areas, often later than that as you are well aware.

Nice shot of WaWa in the background there....was gonna say that is Green Hill course, but I don't think so after studying the pic. Not Wachusett CC either.

You need to move up to like central VT or NH at elevation for it to be normal to have plenty of snow already by mid-December. Or into NW MA or S VT big elevations with the buried bodies.

Getting good permanent snow cover by Tday is extremely rare outside of NNE elevations. Getting a white T-day isn't too hard but still uphill climb....prob like 20-25% shot in ORH and way less in BOS. I think these are the White T-days in ORH in the past 4 decades: 1985, 1989, 1994, 1996, 2002, 2005, 2014, 2018. Thats 8/37.

Yeah, you missed the brunt of the 5-6 hour blitz on 3/4/19....more of a generic warning event there. You did get near-jackpot in the 2/1/21 storm, but that's prob the only one you'd done well in relative to the region since that early Dec 2019 storm.

Yeah March is easily more favored for a big dog storm....December is probably more favored for any type of small snow event (say, less than warning criteria)

Yeah after that great run we had between 2013-2019, March is back to being dogshit the past 3 winters.

Yeah don't get scared of an AK pig this early....we've had plenty of A-list winters that had AK pigs in October or early November....if we see it setting up shop around Tday or after, then it might be time to get scared.

Big AK pig should keep the mild weather that starts today into early November. Ensembles do show a potential transient trough/storminess near or just before Halloween though...so may have to watch that period for cooler/unsettled wx. Hopefully Halloween itself stays dry.

Another good fake cold morning here too....was around 38F at my house but widespread frost down the hill again. Temps just below freezing there.

I love all the technology with Drago and meanwhile Rocky benching anvils and oxen yoke.

I feel like I can run straight through the southeast ridge with my bare hands.