ORH_wxman

These forums didn't start getting popular 20 years ago because of record high temperature enthusiasts.....you know that though since you were on them back then. Winter wx has always driven the traffic aside from some legit hurricane threats.

Forky pretends to hate winter wx.

Flatter AK/Aleutian ridge and deep -PNA would do the trick for torch lovers I think.

Make sure the Aleutian ridge is strongly poleward....that seems to do the best job in pushing the good stuff south. LAst year, we had a pretty flat Aleutian ridge in December which probably didn't help with that huge -PNA. That was actually one of the bigger differences between last year and a month like Dec 1970 which also had a very negative PNA. You don't like to see those lower heights north of AK.

Also want to be careful in overplaying the PNA correlation....we all have PTSD from like a -4 sigma PNA last December, but that is an outlier.

IF we keep the PV on our side of the globe, then it will probably be pretty cold if eventually develop a -EPO/-AO combo....even if PNA is negative.

Weeklies were pretty cold by late Nov/early Dec....that was nice to see.

Prob a bit rushed, but even this lagged by a week to 10 days would probably roll forward into a pretty good pattern by the end of the month and early December...lengthened wavelengths would push everything a bit southeast too....which also would help the AO/NAO.

Yeah that isn't surprising for the observation enthusiast. Anywhere along that south coast of CT that has trouble radiating is going to be a furnace relative to the rest of the New England climate zones. Obviously even just a little bit inland in spots that can radiate (or some of the elevated zones north of the Merritt) are a different ballgame.

Here's a map I just found of average leafout dates.....dark blue is the earliest while the yellows/reds are much later. You can see how late the Cape is (on par with NNE mountains) but areas further west on the south coast in CT are not.

I don't think it's later there if at all....LI sound warms pretty fast. Further out east like on the Cape (and even S RI where's more exposed to open ocean) is a different story. But probably the only areas that would leaf-out sooner than the CT south coast are urban areas in the CT River Valley that don't radiate and perhaps similar urban areas near PVD.

Well to be fair, he's in a town right along LI sound....if you are in a spot around there that doesn't radiate well, it's probably one of the warmest climates in all of New England.

Easily the warmest station in the entire northeast and mid-atlantic.

Rubberband, baby.....

Yes and this matches what scientists have concluded for many years now. They have always been trying to find evidence of a breeding population but there are none anywhere in the northeast. Closest population from the west is probably somewhere in central Nebraska though there might be evidence they are getting into eastern portions of the state as breeding pairs. Of course, there's the Florida population too but the trip from the plains actually might be easier than from Florida. Much more hospitable habitat between the plains and New England than between here and Florida.

Yeah genuine cougar sightings are very rare in New England and of the real ones, most of them are escaped captives, though occasionally you get a wild one from the west like the one that was killed in CT on a highway in 2011 that had traveled all the way from South Dakota. They are usually young nomadic males that travel that far.

Yeah this look is totally fine for early/mid November....you can see -WPO/-PNA pattern with EPO near neutral on the 5 day mean for Nov 5-10. This pattern would naturally get better as wavelengths lengthen.

Bottom prob not until sometime middle of next year would be my educated guess. Gotta see how the housing market affects things too...that is nearing a cliff at the moment. Bottom prob gonna drop out if we see UnEmp tick up to like 5%.....combined with fix 30 year already around 7%. But UnEmp prob not gonna tick up until we see another big drop in market and subsequent credit squeeze.

Never had squirrel but I like gamey meat so I'd prob be fine with it. I've eaten rabbit.

Eh, not really....it can if the piggy isn't in the worst spot and not very deep. But typically a +EPO/+PNA pattern is not cold. You can time an event in that pattern, but you'd rather have at least some cross polar flow.

Yeah my boys were trick or treating in the upper 20s and full snow cover 2 years ago, lol. That was ridiculous. We should stay dry this year hopefully....rain holds off until the next day.

Agreed and I'm totally good with it....I want the shift to a colder pattern (AK ridging and perhaps linking with +PNA) to wait until later November so we can actually take advantage of it better. Time it so that pattern peaks in sometime in December rather than 3 weeks earlier.

Weeklies don't get rid of the AK piggy until about mid-month.

Pig roast....awesome. My kind of party. Congrats Ginxy.

Yeah I'd agree. ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do.