ORH_wxman

There’s been a weak signal around 12/7-8ish on ensemble guidance the last couple runs. It would make sense given that temporary PNA ridging that spikes up while at the same time we have that arctic blocking showing a small relaxation after the initial plunge.

Not often you see 300dm anomalies at d15 on ensembles….on a 5 day mean no less

Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there.

Our classic SWFE/overrunners tend to just be cutters or inland runners that got rejected from cutting by a strong high to our north due to confluence….models frequently don’t see that type of confluence until inside a week. What makes the NAO blocking helpful is that it makes confluence to our north more likely.

Models almost always have problems in La Niña with high latitude blocking. I remember ‘10-11 was a really bad winter for model guidance. There’s always uncertainty but the magnitude of it can change a lot depending on the pattern. There’s a lot of blocking up there forecasted to materialize in the next week and that’s going to probably cause a lot of flip flopping….like we’re seeing on the EPS today. That’s a much colder look but it’s not surprising when you have Atlantic blocking of high magnitude.

I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”.

Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern This H5 pattern Produces this temperature anomaly…

What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night?

Ahh ok so you saw Some epic winters (‘10-11 was amazing in HFD). But yeah, since moving back, been pretty ugly there.

In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking.

When was your first winter there?

I thought he was describing all of ginxy’s dog logs getting ripped against the fence during a good coastal gale.

I like this look on 18z GEFS. Cold and active.

Yeah I’d guess if the market produces incentive for more ski areas, the most likely mountains would be former ski areas that closed. Less work to do and probably less environmental red tape.

Yeah for a day trip I’d want to do something under 3 hours. S VT is in that range.

I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive!

We should get a couple people to do a small day trip in the winter midweek. You can get some great deals midweek and I can play hookie a lot easier than my wife can (she’s a teacher). I don’t mind skiing solo at all, but it’s def more fun if you have another couple skiers if similar skill.

Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up.

The next 7-10 days are going to be pretty ugly for winter enthusiasts....this was the original "relaxation period" that ensembles had back about 10 days ago, but then briefly tried to eliminate (causing dreams of permanent snow pack from Dec 1st-onward) before bringing it back the last few days. But you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, as you said, even on the OP Euro. EPS just coming in now, but they look good too by 12/5.

This is actually true....but it's hard to get approval to just open one these days. However, if lift tickets keep getting more and more expensive, then the economic incentive to open new ski areas will overpower the regulatory red tape....you'll make the money back that you had to spend opening one up. Heck, even the seemingly-doomed Balsams in NH has gotten new life. Les Otten found investors late last year to reinvigorate the project. But even if that one eventually fails, there will be incentives to open other areas....or reopen former ski hills that are now closed.

Pattern talk is usually boring when there's no imminent threat to track....it's where all the melts come from because we're used to pattern talk in mid-winter and we often associate "pattern is changing for the better" talk in mid-winter as us enduring a dead/unfavorable period prior to that, so when we discuss it in November, there's this reflexive reaction that we're "Wasting weeks" when in this case, that is not correct. It's kind of hard to "Waste climo" in November unless you are in the mountains of NNE. Flipping the pattern to more favorable for cold/snow in December should make winter enthusiasts happy versus 10 days earlier. Most people on here should probably root for it to be pushed out to 12/10 or something as very early December is still quite hostile.

Let's face it....for many, it doesn't matter what the ensembles show. The snowfall is the only thing that matters and ensembles won't tell you a lot about that more than a week into the future. They can just tell us if the pattern is more or less favorable for snow than the baseline.

Really good look on ensembles continues after the first few days of December. Pretty darn good agreement with GEFS and EPS.