ORH_wxman

That run mignt be more like 3-6”….not biting yet but nice trend.

GFS pretty weenie-ish for clipper for pike region up through S NH…has a nice IVT that extends the snow. Might be a solid 2-4”.

Almost always.

We’ll see how it trends today but it was a hard trend colder overnight. Even the 06z EPS was noticeably colder than the 00z EPS which had already trended colder with a CAD look. 06z EPS only goes to 144 but you can see how cold that look is right now with the low up in the maritimes and a scooter high building in as the low is in the Ohio valley…with potential for some weaker ripples of low already south of us by that point

Let’s get that looking more like 06z GFS which was pretty tucky for a lot of MA

Those types of systems typically only have a narrow area of ice and usually it’s not stationary enough to give big amounts. Once in a while you might get a narrow band of warning ice but it’s pretty rare. My guess is the frozen precip will be dominated by snow and sleet.

GGEM has gone colder on the 2/1 threat too. Shows a big front ender with the classic looking bent back ML warm front that we often see on SWFEs.

PDII the storm itself was kind of pedestrian in terms of rates. It was basically like 1” per hour for 15 hours and then another couple inches each side of it. As far as 20” storms are concerned, def somewhat “boring” But the modeling aspect of it was quite exciting. It just kept inching north every run from like 4-5 days out. It was a clean whiff on a lot of guidance at D4 and then just a slow creep north. GFS was last to the party as usual back then. Took until really close for it to hammer SNE.

Yeah had about an inch down to the pike. Slide that another 50-75 miles south and maybe it can infuse a little more moisture into it.

Euro tries for front end on that one.

First week of Feb looks tough for snow…although that could always change. Ensembles and weeklies both def look decently cold for second week of Feb. Maybe we can mimick Feb 1972 pattern…that was a La Niña with kind of a dud Dec/Jan for snow and then Feb start off as the typical SE ridge torchy pattern but then it flipped middle of the month and several snow events including a major one occurred.

Holden was always a great weenie town for snow retention too. It’s elevated but largely sits in sort of a shallow valley between 1200+ foot Princeton to its north and 1200+ Paxton to its south so it holds cold air really well too.

I think that's when most of the difference happened....it stayed snow on winter hill that night but it was like pure slush falling from the sky....had about 4-5" the next morning on prob like 5 to ratios, lol. I remember Holden/Princeton already having a foot-plus the next morning. Winter hill then went roughly neck and neck with them the rest of the day as the column cooled a little bit....so we ended up near 15" while they got another 10-12 as well and finished over 25". I'm not even sure why Holden at similar (or even slightly lower elevation) was able to stay colder....maybe being just a smidge further west in longitude gave them a few tenths of upslope cooling in the column. Really crazy storm though to see that gradient where it was.

About 15" of mashed potatoes on Winter Hill.....26" in Holden 5 miles away and not even higher elevation.

EPS trying to send most of the CONUS back into the deep freeze int he 2nd week of February. We'll see. Hopefully we can score something if there's going to be cold around.

CNE too....gets a ocuple inches down to N MA in the Rt 2 zone

LEts dig that clipper a bit more and have it look more like the 00z GFS.

It's funny that Pinkham Notch actually has one on record....lol. (Feb '69 storm)

What's weird is once you mentioned the 113", I remember it too now. I wonder if something was revised. Did you get anything in November 2004? I noticed it's 0.0" but there was a decent event for SE MA I think on 11/13/04 but E Wareham may have been too far south.

NAM got a little too juicy inside of 36 hours on a few runs, but it was surprisingly tame before that which was kind of a red flag on those huge zonked solutions.

This is just a wild guess....but probably because he has like 8" of snow on the season and nothing interesting to track in the pipeline....

EPS has a decent number of SWFE members for that early Feb threat....could be a cutter, but could also end up colder. That's what you get in a gradient pattern.

Euro vastly outperformed the RGEM inside of 72 hours. The RGEMs cousin, the GGEM, performed better than the Euro in the medium range...Like D5-6. But the RGEM only goes out to 84 hours....but by that time, the Euro already had an event and it was mostly advisory snows (which is what verified for the most part) while the RGEM was showing these crazy zonked solutions giving western MA/E NY State and VT/NH a foot of snow or more while everyone east of ORH was mostly rain....it was a really bad performance by that model.

No i still see it on the BOX site. But the 2010s decade for E Wareham is pretty bad on data....a lot of missing data, but it appears to have gotten better again more recently in the 2020s.

RGEM performed poorly IMHO....way too amped and much higher impact than the storm actually was.