ORH_wxman

Funny part was when we whiffed on that event and then got nothing for another week, I was really bummed because I thought it cost us a white Xmas, but then 12/23 happened and all worries were buried under 18” in 6 hours. Tip is correct that this was probably THE generational short term bust in our area (central to east-central MA). I don’t recall one prior to that or since then that was worse. We’ve had plenty of bad ones but nothing of that magnitude. The forecast was literally 1-3” at start time. I think a couple Mets saw the radar to the south and upped it to 3-5” pretty fast (I remember Todd Gross on WHDH that morning saying something like “there could be some surprises with this one” as it looks to be developing a lot faster than models showed.”)

18z euro actually looks more amped than 12z for 12/12. Wish we could see another couple panels past 90h

Let’s back that PV lobe a little more SW and have some of the energy phase in for 12/12….go big or go home.

That block is really flexing more and more each run.

18z gfs really crunching 12/12. Gonna whiff most….SW Ct may do ok still on this run.

Easily the biggest potential model errors are the handling of the blocking up there over the next week. The strengthening of the 12/12 system offshore should theoretically feed back into that some and hold it tough as 12/15-16 approaches....we saw some trends of that today, but my gut says those trends are far from done.

Weird how both model suites had some pretty bad misses even like 7-10 days out.....GEFS was pretty much a disaster in handling the NAO block (EPS generally schooled it)....but GEFS schooled the EPS on the PAC look. The handling of the block isn't done either....I'd expect more trends with it.

The agreement is now pretty damned good. EPS looks a little better overall because the AK ridge on the EPS is stronger....but the anomalies are mostly matching in the right spots to eachother now.

There are quite a few EPS members that give a good shot of snow for the 12/16 system. There's even a small handful that are mostly/all snow.

Yeah the big western PNA ridge isn’t happening I don’t think for now (maybe in January if Ray has the right idea?)….but I love that split flow -EPO/-PNA/weak -NAO look. The EPO ridge is pretty Far East too.

The ULL is so wrapped up to the west it’s trying to yank it NW. it’s fighting the block the whole time though. It eventually succeeds in a limited fashion. It unlikely to play out that way though. If the block is going to sit there in the Davis Strait with a 50/50 trending southwest, I think 12/15-16 will keep trending south too. We can get cutters with a big block there but you typically need a lot of nuances to line up. It’s kind of the opposite of when you have no blocking and a semi-hostile PAC…we’re trying to thread the needle for snow events…in this case, you have to thread the needle for a full cutter. It can happen, but they usually play out messier than that with secondary redevelopments, etc.

Getting closer.

We'll see how the airmass is prior tot he storm....this run had a very chilly airmass advected down int he wake of 12/12 when that PV lobe retrgraded into Maine....it leaves us with a pretty cold airmass. This is 12/14 at 12z. IF you start crushing the system off to the west a little sooner, then you are going to hold this airmass in a bit better upon approach.

NNE may stay frozen on this Euro run for 12/15-16.

It happened in 1997....I think 12/11/97 (ironic its almost the same exact date is this upcoming system)....part of S CT got 5-8" while pike got skunked. South of pike into N CT got like 2-5". ORH prior to that had a 5" event in November, but hadn't gotten warning snows yet. They did get 18 inches though 12 days later on 12/23/97. I remember the 12/11 system though because it was originally forecasted to be 3-6" for ORH and then in the final day they kept cutting amounts and settled on 1-3" and we actually got zero. About 10 miles south had 2-3". I remember seeing cars driving north into the city on 290 with snow all over them and it made me furious.

Euro trying to push the 50/50 PV lobe into N Maine after the 12/12 system. -20C 850 temps....maybe CAR will be cold afterall.

That's close to something a lot better...if we can just curl that little vortmax up into SE SNE.

More confluence but that shortwave is significantly deeper, so it's fighting it. Should be a good hit at least for western zones....we'll see if it can get enough moisture east.

Euro is looking a bit more robust with shortwave for 12/11-12/12....but the confluence to the northeast looks much stronger. The block is flexing its muscles this run.

Mike Ekster is the creator of the term. We kept discussing on eastern in Dec 2007 on how to decribe all these events that kept walloping us aloft with southwest flow but stayed cold in the low levels and he said "they are basically just southwest flow events" and then we started using the term on there and it stuck.

Might never warm sector though in interior on that run. GGEM had a decent shot of ice over interior on that system. Still need a little more to get that one snowier.

Still 4.5-5 days out....everyone should remember that. Lots of room to move either direction. The hedge is south because of the steroid Davis Strait block pushing the 50/50 ULL S or SW. But it could easily come in more amped too on future runs if there is a bit more phasing of energy out to our west.

GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate.

Yes that can happen for sure. There's different flavors of SWFEs. The ones where the secondary tracks over SE MA/RI can warm up those southeast coastal regions pretty good. There's also ones like 12/13/07 which stay mostly snow even in SE areas.