ORH_wxman

18z NAM with a bit more confluence, but the shortwave looks a bit more compact and vigorous so it's prob going to produce a nice band regardless

I mentioned 1/12/11....but I started trying to recall others and the first big one in March '93 also achieved that feat....it gets overlooked by the Superstorm obviously, but it was a big storm in New England. I think we had about a foot. But it was a "tumbler" as you say.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0301.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0302.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0303.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0305.php

Pretty sure the 1/12/11 storm was a closed low almost the entire length of the CONUS. It wasn't as deep as the current modeled system though.

I think the reason for this is that the ocean storm (50/50 low) from 12/12 is further east on the 12z EPS than 00z, so there is a bit more room for the huggers.

Kind of interesting toggling the 12z and 00z EPS individual cyclone members. The primary is weaker and further south, the high to the north is stronger, but there are definitely more huggers in the 12z EPS suite despite those two previous variables.

Destroys N ORH county to Berks and CNE. Kind of like a Dec '92 shifted north a bit.

Trending a bit more southeast, but still gonna be a hugger I think

Prob solid advisory snows for central and western zones. I'd be plenty happy if we got 2-3". Still gotta watch further southwest for an IVT/Norlun as it exits.

Euro looks pretty juiced for sunday night.

Guess your punting Sunday?

Just remind him he already cancelled the first 3 weeks of the month.

I like where ens mean is at with plenty of spread NW at this lead time.

For a pattern as chaotic and unpredictable as this one is at 6-7 days lead, I think it's hard to be too upset about where guidance is. Are we getting a huge snowstorm? Probably not, but we have a legit shot at one and that's all you can ask for a week out.

Ukie is pretty amped for next week. Hopefully we split the difference between it and the GFS.

We may have to watch for a few snow showers or light snow Tues/Wed from that retrograding 50/50 ULL.

Big hit interior....toast bath for coast.

Most guidance is like that...GFS was the stingiest.

Yeah this run skunks eastern zones (outside of OES)

It will still get into SNE....but more confluence is more of a problem for eastern areas. Western areas should do fine regardless.

GFS looking quite squeezed by confluence.

Wouldn't shock me if someone got a decent surprise. The instability is very good....almost dry adiabatic lapse rates for a time and TTs in the 50s. Could see an intense band of heavy snow somewhere.

Yes probably.

Gonna have to watch for the IVT after the initial band of snow....that sig is getting a bit stronger. CT looks most favorable....but also need to watch it in central/western MA.

Hard to believe that '05 storm was 17 years ago. Remember it like yesterday. Funny story on that storm is like 2 days prior to it is when both Tip and I joined EasternUsWx.....we had both been on WWBB, but when the mass exodus occurred from there, it was after the '04-'05 winter, and neither of us had been posting after that winter, so we returned to WWBB to find a wasteland, and I think we both mused to eachother on the forum "I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of the 12/9 threat...it looks pretty intense on some guidance (notably the old ETA)". Then we remembered that some people had been posting on Eastern the previous winter....so we checked it out and found the more engaging convo going on.

I can merge them