ORH_wxman

I don’t think we’ve had any cold up north the last couple winters. Every single time either Canada was completely torched or the cold was well west in Canada with no cold east of Manitoba. That’s the biggest difference I see compared to +4 and +5 Januarys/Februarys of recent years. It still might not work out…but I’m always doing Bruce Willis on big warmth when the cold-loading looks like that.

Did they mention the Global Spectral Model? Or LFM?

First few days of the month were mild too…so that helped bake in some warm departures before we got the several weeks of colder wx. That said, the cold departures definitely underperformed due to lack of radiational cooling. I also think the lack of deep snow cover over a lot of the northeast moderates the temps too…because the H5 height anomalies are like -100dm over us for this month. Can’t really blame it on AGW…maybe a very small component on the rad pits, but even the high temps “under performed” for cold given the upper levels.

To be fair, ORH and BDL are persona non grata if we want unbiased ASOS.

I’m def not fully aligned with tulips and mild wx…we have a deeply -EPO which can produce warm episodes if we wind up to the east of a system…often very warm at that…but I don’t see it sustained at all. The EPO cold-loads Canada so it doesn’t take much to bring arctic air back into here. We get one or two runs where the models flex the SE ridge into Quebec and all of the sudden I’m supposed to believe it? Eh…I’ll believe it when I see it much closer. Again, not talking about a 1 day 60-65F warm sector either…those can happen easily if you cut a system to Detroit or BUF in this pattern. But I’m not throwing in the towel on winter wx the rest of the month…as much as I might want to old-yeller this winter.

11-15 has been very volatile recently. I will also note that a lot of those warm looks have gotten colder as we get closer.

Ironically despite the rhetoric in here, the EPS mean is about as snowy as it’s been all winter out to the end of the run. It’s somewhat high variance as is often the case in a gradient pattern, but it shows that there are likely multiple threats and a decent number of the ensemble members are producing solid snow events in them.

Weeklies keep getting colder for late February too.

Euro is marginal but it’s def cold enough for snow over interior in pike region. It would be pasty but that would likely be several inches. I’m still skeptical of that solution though. Need more continuity.

There’s a couple waves beyond Friday to watch. First one is Sunday but it looks fairly small…but can’t rule out a few inches of WAA snow if it pans out. Second potential might be a bit bigger later next week. These are all isentropic/overrunning/WAA type waves…we’re not talking deep coastal cyclogenesis. But if we can tap into a bit of gulf moisture for the one later next week, it could still be significant. We’ve obviously seen some large overrunning events in the past. This one isn’t currently modeled to be huge but worth keeping an eye on within our sea of uninteresting weather.

That said, GFS does produce a bit of a leading low that cold tucks the lower levels. Even supports snow for N MA/S NH. But there could be a band of sleet and ZR south of there if that verifies.

The perfectly timed northern stream impulse to replace a building in high pressure with a clipper low perfectly encapsulates the last 2-3 winters…I remember posting an EPS mean in here a few days ago that showed a very nice high pressure building in just ahead of the low which was a strong signal for a cold/snow ptype shift….then it immediately gets taken away by this new northern stream impulse.

About 0.5” in Holliston. Whitened the old snow but it will be gone by 2pm.

Southern areas where there’s less snow cover might pull it off before the arctic front.

That is pretty close to a 3-6” snowfall on Euro for pike on Friday night…just a fraction too warm. Pretty decent for S NH and down into Ray’s hood and Rt 2 area though.

Sorry, didn’t post the map at first but posted above now.

Don’t worry, we will welcome you back when the next good threat arises. The pattern gets to everyone eventually.

18z euro numbers on QPF. If snow growth is decent could be some 2-3” numbers…best chance up near NH border but decent coverage of 1”+ maybe. Could be a good burst just before sunrise Wednesday morning.

WINDEX numbers Wednesday late PM/ early evening are pretty impressive. The only thing we're missing for a huge event is the lift is a little so-so.....but everything else is really good. You have very steep lapse rates up to 600mb and plenty of low level moisture to work with. Hopefully the arctic front is consolidate enough to produce good lift.

Yeah this one looks dead unless we see wholesale changes to the leading low. Little clipper in Canada screws us which is too bad. We still get the cold press but we’d need the southern stream to slow down to make it good. Though there could be another one right behind it that might be worth tracking.

Yep…never bought the 12z run but I’ll gladly take a refresher couple inches Wednesday morning and run. I just hope it doesn’t slip north and whiff us or near-whiff. But it aligns decently with euro now.

Not exactly a zonked signal there.

EPS looks really suppressed. Might not even be much of anything on that look. Prob not the worst thing this far out though.

Yeah GFS is prob on crack. Seems like maybe a quick inch or two around here and then that’s it.

GFs had 8-12” several runs in a row around D3 but euro never bit except the one rogue 12z run (maybe 1.5 runs if you include that 06z run for eastern areas)…but yeah, if you were drinking GFS kool-aid while euro was not biting, then that’s on you.