ORH_wxman

RGEM does do a flash to heavy wet snow almost to the coast overnight Friday night though....

This will be an amazing system for those ski areas out there up into S VT.....really build the natural base. Perfect snow for base building.

RGEM still pretty torchy in low levels....but 925 def cooled that run. Just not enough to get to NAM levels of snow in SNE outside of the Berkshires.

Probably....if we get one more tick, then maybe not, but right now I'd expect mostly rain there. Maybe a burst of snow for a time if you can get dynamics going there between about 4am-8am Friday morning.

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

You'd prob get hit hard initially, but it would eventually change over....but not before like 5-8".

I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop.

More for IJD than ORH.....lol

Pants off on winter hill that run

That's a good 925 look right there for anyone with any elevation at all....even some lower spots out west in W CT might do ok on that look

NAM looking a little thumpy again in CT

MLK was a mid-level issue for you....850 0C line was like straddling Union CT....you are plenty cold at 850 this time...all the warmth is trying to get you in the boundary layer below 900mb. Those are the ones I'm frequently skeptical with on the models because the one bias model guidance always has in the low levels is that they are too geostrophic...they don't capture ageo flow very well. A model that is too geostrophic at 900-950 mb is going to bring the warmth too far west inland.

I've noticed those are always super low in marginal events like this. 12/5/20 is a recent example....I think they had low prob of even 3" for ORH and they had nearly 10" of paste but like 10 miles east lower down had 3". Kevin's area is def a bit tough to forecast for because it has elevation but it can be prone to warmth intrusion at 925 from the SE/ESE.

I have no doubt WOR (litchfield county) is a better spot...I'm just looking at some of these runs that show him at -1C at 925 with heavy precip and thinking "that is not rain at 1000 feet". We'll see how the guidance comes in today....small tick NW and he's prob skunked....but small tick colder/SE, and he could get warning snows.

My experience in these is that guidance overdoes the BL warmth....esp below the 925 layer. The latter is the caveat as some guidance is still a bit warm in that 925 zone....like the RGEM. But runs like NAM/GFS were plenty cold in that layer until around midday Friday for Tolland. If it's below 0C at 925, it won;t be raining where he is. Euro was like right on the line but it's been slowly cooling. I'd feel a little more confident to his northeast into ORH area, but if current guidance holds today, I'd prob take the over on 2-3". Obviously a NW tick again and that changes everything.

I'm prob taking the over on that for Kevin unless this shifts NW again today.

They will be taking those up a decent amount today unless there is a reversal in model trends.

18z euro tickled colder/SE. Also more dynamics this run. Hopefully that happens another tick or two

Many of our best Decembers had a solidly negative PNA (2007, 2008, 1970, 1975, etc)

Man, either GFS is gonna score a great coup or get embarrassed. This is less than 3 days out now and it’s way SE of other guidance. It often gags on coastals.

We'll see if it's full of crap...but theoretically the higher res models should be able to handle the BL better than the others. The warmth is from ground-up in this one....it's plenty cold at like 850-900 for a chunk of the time when heavy precip is falling.

I've expected the antecedent airmass to show up colder on guidance as we get closer....so yeah, I think the NAM would make some sense on that aspect. But the caveat is assuming no more NW ticks....if we're tracking the 925 low over interior SNE like the Euro did, that's not gonna cut it. We need it to track over or SE of LI to the Cape roughly to keep interior SNE mostly snow. But even on a Euro track, I'd still expect it to try and tick colder on the front end as we get closer. We just would flip to rain on the Euro even in a colder antecedent airmass.

3k is also colder than other guidance...only goes to 60h, but that is getting close to the onset of precip.

NAM tickled NW....it is still dumping good snow though over interior elevations. The antecedent airmass just is a lot better on the NAM than some other guidance.

Is there a pattern where cutters aren't a risk? They can happen in any pattern. I've seen them happen with a monster PNA ridge sitting over Idaho. A baffin/davis strait block does not strike me as a pattern where cutters are disproportionately represented. They can still happen though. But I'd give the nod to SWFE/redevelopers/Miller Bs when you have that type of Atlantic look with a mean trough over the central CONUS.