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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It’s hard to imagine towns like Gardner/Winchendon/Ashburnham getting less than 6” without a good bump NW on model guidance. Basically all those towns N of rt 2 there.
  2. ORH_wxman
    It won’t happen. I probably forecasted for that specific region longer than anyone else alive…lol. One of them will be really wrong.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Thought that would end up better based on aloft. But either way the threat is clearly there.
  4. ORH_wxman
    GFS looks like a mushroom cloud ready to go off….prob gonna be fun in a few more frames.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)
  6. ORH_wxman
    Either GYX is going to be really wrong in southern Cheshire county or BOX is going to be very wrong in N ORH county.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah its fine up there....you're gonna clean up. There was almost this weird dryslot hitting CT and part sof MA briefly early on during that run which changed the progression vs 12z....because it was def shunted more south and colder early on, and then we lost dynamics that run. I mean, the QPF in the CT river valley is like 40% of the 12z run....lol
  8. ORH_wxman
    Prob about 1 in 10....it would happen somewhere from late evening to overnight friday night if it happened.
  9. ORH_wxman
    It was colder early on....but its starting to be warmer in the more recent frames because the dynamics are definitely weaker this run.....but we'll how it looks in another few frames...it may go to town here overnight friday night.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Right....by that token, they weren't worried about that area of 8"+ intruding into Ashburnham on their map? Just weird.... Anyways, 18z NAM coming in colder again
  11. ORH_wxman
    LOL....BOX and GYX better coordinate again overnight tonight. The discontinuity in the maps is really obvious....even for a non-Met/non-weenie.
  12. ORH_wxman
    BOX and GYX clearly do not agree either....that gradient in N ORH county looks ridiuclous....never seen Rindge get 12"+ while those other towns just south get almost skunked.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Lol....how did they get a watch in HFD county out of that map?
  14. ORH_wxman
    They already issued their watches this afternoon....unless maybe they add N ORH late? I'm extremely surprised they didn't have them in the first time around though. I mean, it's not a lock in N ORH county, but I'd have to say its def 50%+ for 6" for a lot of that part of the county.
  15. ORH_wxman
    No....Euro caught on around 132-138 hours out and no other models joined until like 2 or 3 runs later. 12/17/20 was seen over a week out.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I am shocked they don’t have a watch for N ORH county. You only need 50% confidence in 6” for one.
  17. ORH_wxman
    I think you and I need another half tick or so to get into something meaningful. I’d be feeling excellent on my old stomping grounds on winter hill….I may make an appearance there on Friday. You’re old stomping grounds are a lock. At least it’s still trackable though.
  18. ORH_wxman
    We sick… We remember…
  19. ORH_wxman
    EPS
  20. ORH_wxman
    2/15/15 had a similar strength H5 low....though the one on the euro today is much larger in size.
  21. ORH_wxman
    EPS didn't move too much from 06z....maybe a very small tick E.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Just gotta get Dr. No to finally cave....it's teetering, but not quite ready to give up yet.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That Euro look was much better than last run....that blocking is in a great spot.
  24. ORH_wxman
    New Hartford at 1,000 feet should get crushed in this event
  25. ORH_wxman
    One thing I noticed on the Euro is that the vort max we see on most other guidance on the front side of the trough is a lot weaker. I wonder if that is playing a role...generally weaker dynamics (and weaker height falls)? See below....here's the GFS
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