ORH_wxman

Honestly not sure....3km looked a bit more like the RAP on the soundings....but I've seen the 12km do better before too.

Gonna be watching the short term guidance todya pretty closely....def some differences. 3k was a lot snowier (esp down in CT) than the 12k NAM. RAP early tomorrow has excellent snow growth for ORH that would prob help overcome the mild sfc...but the below is the kind of sig we want to see

They'll be helped by upslope there and some latitude. Being on the east slope there should help with some of the cooling. Even if the immediate base is a bit sloppy, you prob won't have to go up more than a couple hundred feet before its a lot better.

Yeah its going to be all about the omega and how strong it is and where it lines up....you rip 30-50 microbars in the DGZ, then there are going to be some surprises. If you don't line it up and/or omega is weaker, then it's a cold rain for most outside the very highest spots in Berks/N ORH/Monads

Check out the 3k early tomorrow....coming in pretty thumpy for CT....and looking at the soundings, you can see why. This is Tolland at 09z tomorrow...great cross hair sig

NAM looks a bit warmer than 06z at 27h....a little cooler than the 00z run. (looking at 925)

You def want a cross hair sig to maximize any latent cooling potential.

There was this weenie property around 1400 feet in Ashburnham I used to always want when driving up there.....it was pretty close to Mt Watatic....I'd love to be camped out there tomorrow, lol.

Oh man, that is close to a pounding there...but even if it isn't, the drive to Hadley from there takes you across Rt 2 in MA, right? I'd have to imagine it's not going to be the easiest travel in those spots around Gardner/Winchendon. Only saving grace is the heaviest precip might be before that...so perhaps 4pm isn't quite as bad as it would be around midday or sometime in the morning.

Beast is going to get a 20 burger I bet....great spot in northern Berks.

I would. Euro was taking this over like ORH on some runs a few days back. Lol. If this ends up over ACK or CHH like most guidance has, that’s a pretty bad cave by euro vs gfs. GFS was def too far SE but I think it wins this one 60/40 or 70/30. But we’re not at verification yet. Euro may win if we’re measuring from like 60-72 hours out but I was measuring from like D4-5.

Euro did get schooled overall on the track in this event. It’s basically gone 70% toward the GFS in the past 48 hours while the GFS only went a little toward the Euro. It remains to be seen if those warm thermals verify though it should be noted that the euro’s thermals are definitely a solid tick cooler than they were yesterday at this point.

Looks like 06z euro cooled too. Finally shows it snowing for much of the first half of the storm in N ORH county. Even Kevin grabs a couple.

Yeah it’ll be interesting. 00z euro cooled 925 by about 1C tomorrow morning which brings it closer to other guidance (but still not all the way). But even on euro you are now below 0C at 925 during the storm through midday tomorrow. 850 starts around -5 and warms to about -2 through midday. But it’s trying to show mostly rain for you during this time.

I think my favorite post was how George thinks it could snow on the east side of a 960 low.

06z runs were pretty good for maybe a period ending as snow further east too early Saturday. Still gotta watch that.

Man, I just got finished looking at 06z stuff (which cooled just a smidge) and it’s hard for me to see how that map doesn’t bust up in N ORH county. But we’re gonna find out real soon.

I’d actually like to see that saturated just a bit higher past 500 to maximize latent cooling. I want that whole DGZ covered.

It’s funny, I just said I’m glad I don’t operationally forecast up there these days. I’ve been waiting for the BL to keep cooling but it seemed to reverse slightly and start warming a tad since the 18z runs. Yet, every other aspect of the storm seems to be trending toward a big snowstorm there. Everything in my gut and past forecasting experience and instinct says go gung ho there…but do you go against the raw temp data on some of these runs? That’s the part you always have to wrestle with as a forecaster. You can’t ignore data without a very strong empirical reason. You pick and choose very carefully when it is appropriate to make the human adjustment and always make a note of what the outcome was in your forecast.

You might be in one of the best spots for this storm. I’d expect a foot minimum there.

That is absolutely drool-worthy for interior elevations. It would be hard not going full-throttle if I was still operationally forecasting for those towns up there.

It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost.

Those BL temps are almost not credible given the track. Track might have been slightly better on 18z vs 12z. More consolidated just south of BID and a touch south of 12z. I’ll give it until 12z tomorrow to see if there’s any caving.

I might be wrong but I’m really struggling to find an excuse to forecast 1-3/2-4” for 1000+ feet up by rt 2. I suppose if we believe model guidance that has 925 in the 0C to -1C range but sfc temps of 37? I’m not sure who would believe that though. That just doesn’t happen in elevated areas there. It almost always fails…which is why I always used 925 as my benchmark when forecasting for high terrain. I guess if you took the Euro verbatim it would struggle there but it’s the warm outlier at the moment in the 925 level…and even on the euro, it’s showing rain for a while when 925 is still below 0C. It’s also the NW outlier. So they must be going with that track but they didn’t explicitly say there were. The track matters a lot. You just aren’t going to get rain in N ORH county if 925 is tracking over the Cape…at least not significant rain.

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then.