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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Bodies in S VT is another good suspect (no pun intended)
  2. ORH_wxman
    I dunno check out 1983 Xmas in the CONUS. That may have ‘80 beat too (not locally but in many other areas)
  3. ORH_wxman
    There's been some weenie flakes on winter hill today.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Looks like BOX convinced them to cave in southern Cheshire county. I'm still bullish in that area.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd prob go a little higher in Norfolk area....they've been consistently getting 10+ on guidance.
  6. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM actually has a better ending over eastern areas early Saturday than previous runs....but I don't really buy it when the low is already at or beyond our latitude. IT's trying to show a good CCB...though 850 is still almost out of the east north of the pike so maybe....
  7. ORH_wxman
    Which is funny because other guidance is getting more amped while RAP keeps getting colder....19z run actually hits ORH to Tolland pretty hard.
  8. ORH_wxman
    3k continues to be colder than the 12k....actually gives decent snows again for parts of CT late tonight.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Keep us posted....your obs are actually kind of useful for how guidance was handling the low levels.
  10. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM looks normal early on, but its going to be super amped by late Friday....850 low at 18z tomorrow is over NYC while it was S of LI at 12z.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I'm not at all comfortable yet for your 'hood on just going borderline advisory snow. I've been noticing the RAP cooling all day today....Euro continues to be an issue obviously, but we'll keep tracking. RAP has you with this sounding at 15z tomorrow with already 6+ fallen
  12. ORH_wxman
    I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.
  13. ORH_wxman
    That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Good Scooter high in place on the Euro at 168-174
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you'll prob get a period of parachutes when the lift is good predawn and then you lose them as lift moves on and/or 925 warms too much to support snow any longer. Whichever happens first.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it has some snow pre-dawn for your 'hood. Maybe a couple inches. Not as good as GFS though.
  17. ORH_wxman
    After it took the low about 100 miles south from it's interior SNE days, it's been pretty stubborn tracking it from E LI to SE MA for the last 5-6 runs.....06z was maybe the furthest south....it did get the low kind of close to you, but it did it in a colder manner tracking it south of BID and just S of MVY before it hooked it left. 12z run doesn't take as wide of a turn.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Looks a smidge colder on the front end than 00z, but it looks a bit warmer than 00z for friday night. 06z looked a bit colder than both.
  19. ORH_wxman
    What's nice about this pattern is that this is just the first major threat....it appears we will multiple reloads on the western ridge with the decaying NAO block through end of the month and into early Jan.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Might as well go record highs....nothing's changed since the first half of November
  21. ORH_wxman
    Wildcat or Sunapee would be my two top spots in NH in this storm.
  22. ORH_wxman
    2 on MAV guidance. 0 on MET (though it has a 1 for early Sat)
  23. ORH_wxman
    One of the random meteorological phenomenon i find amusing in this storm is the 1000-500 thicknesses are lowering during the event at the same time the BL is warming.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that early Sat flashover wouldve been cool, but the stall rarely works out. Gonna be too far northeast by that time....maybe a period of SN-, but no big CCB finish.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Check out GFS, lol Your BY at 09z early tomorrow:
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