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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Tropical forcing kind of shows this. The pig tries to build in during an unfavorable period just after Xmas but then we go more to an El Niño look in the N PAC with the pig retrograding to Aleutian Low position. If Ray wants to flush La Niña temporarily, this would be the time that it might happen.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Lol. Dude is like JB in reverse. Never saw a pattern that didn’t suck…so he can take credit for every time it doesn’t work out. The longwave pattern has been pretty favorable but you can’t always assume nuances will work out. Hell, we just had a storm with 20-burgers not that far away…a storm that would’ve been a cutter if not for the blocking. But we missed a big storm down here by about 1-2C in the BL. The 12/11 system also would have been a mild rainer if not for the blocking.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah esp after ski country just got an awesome base builder. Getting a screamer would suck. At least powderfreak can host his annul Xmas skimming party.
  4. ORH_wxman
    If there’s one way to salvage the storm it’s prob turning it more into a SWFE where confluence to our northeast comes in stronger than modeled and the relay off the west coast comes in flatter.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah recently. It wasn’t as egregious prior to that. There will prob a set of years soon where we avoid it a bunch of times.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we saved a white Xmas that year with about an inch of snow overnight 24th into the 25th after the 23rd apps runner wiped out our 5” pack that we had achieved on 12/19. Fun winter that followed.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Ironically the 1980s were pretty good at avoiding grinch storms….but don’t look at the rest of those winters.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Off top of my head…Grinch storms since 1990 (defined as a torching cutter between 12/22-12/25) 1990 1993 1994 (this was actually a benchmark nor Easter but was subtropical so it was all rain even into NNE) 1996 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2013 (this one stayed ice for a lot of NNE) 2014 2015 2020 I may have missed one or two. It’s happened a lot in the past few decades.
  9. ORH_wxman
    At least we’ll save on the awful heat prices.
  10. ORH_wxman
    GFS does try and thump on the front side. But it will get washed away.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is gonna be a screamer.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah prob about 20-25% there historically. We’ve def been getting a little unlucky recently overall with the frequency of pack annihilators in December…but nothing has been too ridiculous.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he was trying to lump himself in as “unlucky”….lol. I guess for the very narrow scope of white Xmas he has been but overall he’s been about the luckiest spot compared to climo in SNE the past decade.
  14. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM is still staying in the GFS at 48h with the western TPV. Not worth much yet until big boys show something. But the Kotite Jets aren’t folding yet.
  15. ORH_wxman
    It was SW CT somewhere I don’t remember the town. His yardstick says Waterbury in that pic tho. Lol. So it was prob somewhere near there.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Aka the “Zonties Method”
  18. ORH_wxman
    Gotta love the 944 low off the Delmarva
  19. ORH_wxman
    GFS was a lot of snow on the front end…esp interior. Your area was def worse though.
  20. ORH_wxman
    GFS/Icon/NAM vs the rest. Kind of feels like the Rich Kotite Jets facing the 1990s Cowboys.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah good bet. They got smoked up there. I bet Watatic has a bunch too. Prob at least 18 near the top.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The north side of mountain road did well. You could see the ski side of the mountain getting parachutes for much of the day. It was really wet there but still accumulated some. But Princeton center just down the road was like 36 and white rain. Really bizarre. You almost never see that. The base of the ski area is lower than the town center and they were doing better from that extra 1-2 mile of latitude.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That was the big front ender that turned to ice (and then rain eventually). Think I had about 7” in that.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I’m a bit surprised places like Princeton didn’t get more but everyone north of them got hit with warning snows it looks like. It was just a 1 in 50 year event where the CF is sitting over Princeton instead of 10-15 miles east (or southeast) Lol
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yes. It would prob be an overrunning or SWFE if we sent the whole thing in flatter and didn’t allow it to dig for oil in the plains.
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