ORH_wxman

GFS coming in better than 18z for next Friday.

As long as the poster is not here in bad faith, we allow and we laugh.

1/9 is kind of a weak signal but it’s there. The strongest sig right now is actually around 1/12.

Why? Without The Pope, this place just wouldn’t be the same.

Yeah it was close enough for 6 days out anyway. We got some improvements today on most guidance to keep that threat in the game….now we need to keep driving the football. Can’t really have any major setbacks. Would be nice to steal that event out of a crap pattern. Get some momentum heading into a more favorable regime.

GFS a bit too suppressed at 18z for next Friday.

We already have you marked down as calling for a 2015 repeat stretch. We’ll grade you on that call in 4 weeks.

I’d like to see a few more runs of EPS show this before getting too excited…and obviously the real key is how the geese behave in the next week. I’ll be watching the local parks carefully and you should too.

That was a nice start at least. First run where EPS made a significant move toward GEFS in the 11-15. That monster PNA ridge with split flow is a really nice look. Fingers crossed it happens.

This has been lurking on some guidance too. The larger teleconnection sig is around 1/12 or so. Tip has commented on it but it would be great to sneak and event or two in earlier.

Euro is intriguing

He’s even given up on making up a bogus reason for it not verifying. Totally mailing it in now.

Best look yet. Hopefully euro trends better in a bit.

Ukie a little too suppressed for follow up wave.

Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave.

I’ll admit my meteorological world view has been shattered when I learned geese feeding patterns were superior to model guidance. I promise to walk into 2023 a new man.

It’s the white (bald) faced hornet nest height. Not paper wasps. That’s why they pay us the big bucks.

After this December, I’m definitely adding geese feeding habits to my list of tools to use for forecasting.

“We should have used the geese to forecast”

Ukie looked intriguing for next week too. It’s good to see a bit more non-GFS guidance trying to get something going. You’d still want to see the trailing shortwave trend more amped in future cycles to be more than a nuisance/advisory type event though.

Euro actually had a bit of snow on the 00z run for eastern MA.

And we live in the part of the US that probably has one of the longest lags. So many other spots have their peak climo closer to the solstice than we do. Most of them have lags too but far less than ours.

You need to be in CAD land to have a realistic shot at a “wire to wire” winter for snow pack (I’ll define wire to wire as continuous pack or at least nearly continuous.) Only a small part of SNE really gets into that zone…I’d call it N ORH county mainly near and N of rt 2. My old stomping grounds on winter hill was on the edge of that zone but definitely not quite as good. The other area that is in that zone is the east slope of Berkshires and maybe including down into Hippy’s area. East slope above like 1600 feet is prob in a separate category themselves. The rest of interior SNE can sort of fake it for 3-4 week stretches outside of those truly special winters. Places like BOS maybe get something semi-close to wire to wire once per 15 years or something.

How many winters are great all 4 months from Dec-Mar…I have them all memorized like a weirdo, but I bet you would have a hard time naming even 3.