ORH_wxman

Much colder look on 18z GFS for next week. Some legit icing in that overrunner.

Def some bright banding moving into western SNE

I’m sure he’s on the edge of his seat for some wet flakes at the end. We really need to bring the weenie tag back….

@CoastalWx, 12z euro actually destroys the 50mb vortex faster…obliterated by d11-12. Something to watch…

Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa.

SUNY MM5 was a go-to in CAD events circa mid-late 2000s

High variance though. Could easily miss out on those threats too. But yeah, the OP solutions could vary by 200 miles at D7 and beyond and even a 100 mile shift could be the difference between big snows and 65F flamingos.

Need a much better high to show up on guidance....trying to on GGEM and to a lesser extent GFS...but still needs a lot of work.

There's pretty decent support for the 50mb split on guidance right now. We'll see how it looks in another few days...but pretty silly to just dismiss the idea.

They might get more snow in Uganda than we've had this winter.

Nice early April day out there.

Phase with TPV in west-central Canada was a bit weaker/delayed this run (but not denied)....if we can weaken that further, then we'll keep better high pressure to our north...or at least have it take longer to slide east. Canadian shows this too....except even better.

Are you thinking of 1992? There was a snow event on those dates in '92....very cold March that year after a pathetic rest of winter. That one wasn't a big storm though...maybe like 3-6" type event. It did hit the I-95 corridor though too....kind of a clipper/redeveloper.

Yeah if we want to try for a big dog in March, this will increase our chances for sure. Usually lag time is only about 3 weeks if you're getting a big stratospheric event near 2/10

GEFS clown range

weathermodels doesn't show EPS stratosphere which is really annoying....GEFS has it though....but the GEFS signal is not quite as robust, but its def there

Out in clown range obviously by this point....but by the end of the run, it's obliterated

Euro has it splitting around 2/9-10

EPS has two decent signals for potential siggy snow...first one is 2/8-9 and the second is 2/13-14....the latter a much weaker signal of course considering the lead time. It's too bad we're getting a bit of a TPV lobe phase next week because otherwise, 2/5 would be a legit threat too. But I can't remember how many times I've said "too bad for a TPV lobe phasing out west" over the past 3 years.

You know it's exciting when half a page is taken up on a Gulf of Mexico/America discussion. On the plus side, the EPS continues to be snowier in the mean than any other time this winter....not saying I'm buying it, but I think ti speaks to the realistic potential for some good events in this upcoming pattern....as high variance/high volatility as it may be,

Sell....maybe up by Ray they grab a couple....I'm in the "coatings at the end" camp for the pike region....up near NH border will prob be able to squeeze out an inch or two.

Yeah we haven’t had a lot of that northerly flow where it just drills down the valleys of NewEngland. So much of our cold has been on west winds as the primary directional component. Lack of good snow cover over NY State and midwest helps modify that a bit but I think most of the disparity between sfc and 850 anomalies is the sun and dry adiabatic lapse rates all month like @dendrite mentioned. Typically when we have cold 850s, we’ll mix in plenty of northerly “Montreal express” flow and then also some nasty CAD type days in approaching storm systems. Those are the types of days where your high temps might offset meh low temps…like over the interior, maybe clouds kept your low temp at 13F but CAD from that approaching system keeps your high temp the next day at 18F so it’s still a nasty cold departure. Sometimes you’ll also get the scenario where the high is sitting on top of you and it’s poor mixing which makes your daytime highs much colder…we haven’t had much of that either.

We’ve been well below normal at 850mb this month (about -4C which converts to around -7F departure) but the sfc anomalies are very meh. Prob multiple reasons for that. Wind has kept the rad pits up. Lack of deep snow cover across a lot of the northeast and Midwest has allowed sfc to modify a bit more than maybe otherwise when these airmasses advect in. Haven’t had a lot of cloudy days with precip either on CAD type flow (northerly) which would help offset the meh low temps with very cold highs…but hasn’t worked out that way. You’re not going to convert the 850 anomaly to the sfc at a 1 to 1 ratio but we’d prob typically see more like a -2 to -4 month on those.

Yeah the 18z Euro was a very modest increase in precip....this is going to be like last time where the ineedsnow's of the forum claim big euro cave and in the end it will probably be far more correct than weenie GFS runs that dropped as much as half a foot of snow near the border.

Yes. La Niña typically has SE ridge though that has not been the case this January but it is showing up for February. Most La Niñas don’t have big coastals in February. If they occur, they usually occur earlier in the winter or later like in the month of March. But it’s not impossible…there’s been exceptions to the rule. I think the best chance of a true big dog coastal this winter will be in March. Doubly so if we get a late SSW in early February which has a chance of happening. That’s actually what happened in 2001 and 2018 which both produce huge blocking and huge coastals in March those years.