ORH_wxman

I don’t think climate change has anything to do with model guidance shitting the bed on synoptic setups. There’s no secret “climate change parameter” in the models. Climate change doesn’t magically make the laws of physics and thermodynamics change. The model guidance is simply ingesting data and then running out the equations in time. La Niña can often be a b**ch on model guidance and that is probably partially the reason we’re seeing these swings. Some of it just random variance too going against us. When models trend favorable in medium range, we aren’t usually saying “I can’t believe how bad the models are that they all of the sudden trended much better with the confluence!”

About 2” on winter hill as of 15 min ago….now passing 2”

Models f**king up the PAC killed December....they still suck at handling the PAC, but this time, now they are mucking up the Atlantic where our confluence was coming from.

Rates just aren;t that good here. Everything whitening up, but we're prob more in line for a sloppy inch (maybe two) than the 3-4" I was hoping for. But we knew we'd need the rates for it. Radar still blossoming though, but I think it looks a bit better for northeast MA than here.

I mean, nothing would surprise me at this point....it's kind of funny actually like Scoot said when random PV lobes disappear....seems like Murphy's Law applies right now. Hopefully if that happens, you bring lots and lots of booze up north for your trip.

Starting to stick to grass and other non-paved surfaces here. A nice steady light snow...prov vis less than a mile but it's not moderate/heavy.

Every model had it except Euro. Ukie had it too even though it stops at 144.

Where did the PV lobe go? Lol....just disappeared.

Finally back to steady snow here...hopefully we're done with the sucker holes. In theory, those echoes should intensify as they move east from ORH county and western MA.

We had some huge aggregates a few min ago but back into another mini sucker hole...can't seem to escape them so far. But clearly if we get under some steady echoes, it wants to snow, so hopefully we can get a nice 3-4 hour burst here starting soon.

GEFS were quite a bit snowier than the 06z run....there must be a lot of good members in there.

Just started snowing again here with those echoes.

GFS also digs the trough into Florida. Where's the southeast ridge all the experts were telling me was there when we need?

Should go back to rain when the warm front from Albany moves through.

You wasted one of your 5 posts on that? You hate to see it.

Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours.

Pretty good echoes developing in SW CT right now...as that pushes east, more echoes should fill in and we'll see if they can intensify for a good 3-4 hour burst this afternoon. That's what to watch for int he next few hours

Massive fatties at WaWa (time sensitive) https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/

Lift is a lot better with the midday/afternoon stuff.

Most day 9 potential storms don't work out so it wouldn't be surprising. But who knows...maybe something else breaks favorable like Monday or the 1/11 system comes back from the dead.

I actually think it starts looking better again around the 20th. But we'll see.

Nice solution for ORH through 495 belt and up into S NH. Even 128 belt metrowest does well later this afternoon....something to watch.

Yes, it's good you are snowing now...the other question there is how much QPF you get from the afternoon stuff. The best is prob to your east and northeast, but by how much? Maybe you get an inch this afternoon....or maybe you get 3".

Yep....that is the key in this one...if we trend toward less northern stream insert, then we can punt this one to the moon.