ORH_wxman

Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus.

2020-2021 was a pretty good winter at least here. I was above normal with 2 storms over a foot and another around 10”. The 80s basically had 2 really good winters (81-82 and 86-87) and 2 half-decent winters (83-84 and 87-88)..the rest were just smoking hot turds shoveled into our mouths. We didn’t have a really high-end winter though that decade like we typically have other decades….it was modest upside with a shit ton of downside. The 80s did have some really good spring storms though…April ‘82, Mar ‘84 and Apr ‘87 come to mind.

We’ll there was a reason I said I was skeptical….

We haven’t had any Aleutian ridging in a while…it’s been El Niño out there recently. I’m sure a flat Aleutian ridge will show up just in time for February to give us a classic Niña February with a stout SE ridge….

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter.

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it.

Oh yeah. It’s embarrassing how much they were solely focused on the $$. It’s hard to wrap my head around the SEC having all the evidence gift-wrapped for them but didn’t take the one final step in actually checking to see if the trades were real. Gotta hand it to Madoff on how authentic everything looked though. That’s prob why the SEC didn’t get him much sooner. They were prob thinking “ok these trade tickets are real”. The most mind-boggling aspect though is how successful Madoff was at his legitimate market-making business. You’d think that would’ve been enough success and $$. But greed knows no bounds.

Let’s trend this into a FROPA and then grab a CCB from the low that redevelops on the front.

Yeah this seems to be one of those dogshit years….but as you said, we’ve had some brutally awful starts before and then turned it around. But it’s a lot harder to do in La Niña. Need a 55-56 ending or 00-01 ending.

I dunno this feels like it’s trending toward Euro at the moment. Maybe it will reverse but it better happen pretty soon.

The PV lobe didn’t just disappear from euro, it also got weaker on the other guidance that still has it. It’s more like a little closed system rather than a larger portion of the TPV swinging southwest which is why the confluence/airmass doesn’t hold up at all. Just slides right out of the picture. In those solutions a couple days ago that had a real airmass, you had this big lobe swinging around the southwest side and creating an arctic high that held pretty stout.

He’s not interested in good-faith discussion. Just trying to post zingers. But I think he used up his 5 posts for today.

Might as well try and get some massive flooding rains out of this if we can’t get any snow.

Late Dec 2017 and early Jan 2018 had some legit cold. I think ORH set like 4 or 5 cold records during that stretch (3 or 4 record low maxes and a record low min)

GFS trying to bring Wednesday back a little. Not really a storm but a little light snow.

If we stick to La Niña, I think the only type of finish that can salvage the season is following a year like ‘55-56 or ‘00-01.

One of those seasons where if some nuance can trend worse, it does. Hopefully both our luck changes and the improved pattern shown in the 11-15 happen.

Yeah I don’t see how coastal areas (esp further south) salvage that storm. Still maybe a chance NNE and maybe interior SNE could get something but that’s looking bleaker but the cycle.

Looks like the euro locking onto no TPV is going to be correct. Murphy’s Law in full effect for snow lovers at the moment.

The physics behind CC are real. Maybe a lot of the attribution gets sensationalized and worst case scenarios given too much credit but I assure you that CC is real. Someone get wolf a nice deer carcass to snack on….relax and wait for the 00z runs.

One of my most painful memories was 2/24/98. Started off as rain and then quickly flipped to heavy snow and forecasts were for 8-12” over interior hills here. Then all of the sudden it flips to sleet and then rain after about 4” of heavy wet snow. They kept saying it should flip back but it never did. Had like 2-3” of rain on top of that paste with a benchmark track.

I had to run out after dinner for an errand and when I left the top of my hill around 350-400 feet there was light snow cover in the roads….just wet at the bottom 200 feet lower. Trees and bushes had noticeably less sticking to them too. Def an elevation gradient.

Driveway is turning into a sheet of ice all of the sudden underneath the thin layer of snow that had just started sticking to it about an hour before it ended.

Yeah this winter would be dogshit even if we were wearing knickers pulling oxen in the 1700s. Maybe ORH would’ve gotten some snow out of that 12/16 event but I can’t really point to any other events that would’ve worked well just by shaving a degree and a half off the atmospheric profile. Of course, one could claim “we wouldn’t get this upper level look in the 1700s…” which is a semi-fair point but not really valid to the discussion. Total dogshit upper level patterns have happened in all eras…maybe just the frequency of certain ones has changed. Also, you really have to do robust attribution studies on how CC connects to the hemispheric pattern. We are all old enough to remember when CC was blamed for some of the brutally cold winters (esp Midwest/plains) in the late 2000s/early 2010s…and also blamed for the increasingly -AO/-NAO patterns of that time. Somehow, we don’t hear much about that now once the AO/NAO went more positive since 2014. The funny part is the northern plains and Rockies have continued to get brutal winters in the past 5-6 years too even with a more positive AO. But the northeast has probably been the warmest place in the CONUS relative to average the past 7-8 years or so. We were due for some of that though after the relatively colder period from 2007-2015.