ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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12z is still going to hammer the Cape, but I don't think it will be as far inland into SE MA as 06z was
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There's no precip.....next round is back in OH/PA....though there should be some lighter stuff trying to develop almost overhead this afternoon.
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You want the PV at least in Hudson Bay or a little east of that if you have a deep western trough....kind of like Feb '94....we had troughs digging pretty deep there but it worked out because the PV wasn't sitting over Alberta, it was much further east.
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GFS just keeps dumping deep troughs into the west....we slowly get arctic cold bleeding in here but it takes a long while....so that is partly why I'm not all that gung ho at least prior to 1/25....there's certainly a possibility that one of the pre-1/25 shortwaves produce something interesting, but no way to be confident in that with the deep western troughs it shows.
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The OP GFS has a good SWFE here anyway
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We only comment on the OP runs that show cutters these days...we ignore the D13 snowstorms.
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Euro is prob on crack....I'd be a lot more intrigued if this was a few years ago when it was more dominant on east coast storms.
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No the original cranberry bog storm was 12/31/08.
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One more pic. Actually coming down a bit harder now. Normally this wouldn’t even get attention but this winter it feels like a real storm
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Yeah Jan 27, 2008 to be specific.
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Fatties
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Icon still a clean whiff but it did back west about 40-50 miles.
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Let back that in another 40-50 miles.
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Nice fatties falling here. Solid coating on everything.
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This weekend....storm that crushed the Cape/SE MA on the 06z Euro
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Yeah the classic "look for 3-6' or 4-8" before the flip" and then it would flip after 1 inch, and then rain 1-2 inches on top of it and then freeze 6 hours later with temps in the single digits and bare ground.
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Getting some legit cold airmasses in here would certainly help.....you can have imperfect storm tracks and do well when you have a good antecedent airmass.
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Steadier light snow has commenced here. Maybe we can pick up an inch before the flip later today.
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Not biting on that coming far enough west, maybe if we see another solid movement today.
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Happened in 2020.
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Yeah no use in looking at OP runs in SNE until maybe this weekend or even next week depending on how any individual threats materialize.
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Same sun angle as 12/1
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The reveal is: 1. 1989 2. 2014 3. 2021 4. 1994 So 2 through 4 were prolific snow producers but 1 was a horrific dud.
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They get 6"+ before the flip....root for Reggie to be right because its over a foot up there.
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I would too...it looks more favorable in the Jan 21-25 period than the GEFS, though GEFS look like they are about to go nuclear on the cold near the end. But EPS looks like it might want to build the EPO ridge much higher if it went out further....you could see it building at the very end. Regardless, either pattern is going to give chances better than the current pattern. Hopefully we can get some good timing for once.
