ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM has round 2
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It's really cold at like 925-950....like -7C, so in any steady precip, it's prob gonna wetbulb quickly down below 32F.
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Gets Boston and metro west too.
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Wow...scooter crushed on 12z NAM
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NAM is a bit west of 06z. That's a pretty intense band trying to kiss the south shore.
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Yeah I'm not confident anyone gets a lot (as in more than 3 or 4 inches), but there is a small probability this busts in the positive direction if we sit a CCB/deform over some areas for 12-18 hours.....always tough when there is kind of a mature ULL, but there are areas of good fronto that try to get going, so we'll see.
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1/19-20 is looking a bit better for NNE imho....there weren't as many solutions ripping the snow line well into Quebec....many kept NNE mostly snow, so we'll see if that trend continues today.
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I think Pope and ginxy got into an argument about it....not sure where they were talking though....NH isn't seeing 60 but SE MA could.
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It’s also like a difference of 30 miles that makes a big sensible wx impact. So if this ends up grazing the cape, I don’t think I’d call out the euro for shitting it’s pant. Now if it stays solidly offshore I would.
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18z euro ticked back east. Still has some snow for SE MA but nothing like the previous two runs.
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He just needs to move to the top of a hill that doesn’t get any CAD/radiational cooling. You get the elevation snowstorms but also aren’t rotting at 46F when it’s 65F a couple hundred feet off the deck. When the cutters come, you can clear that driveway easily.
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Little narrow warm nose at 850....not sure I'd buy that, but who knows. Remember when the NAM kept showing that in the lead-up to the March 2013 firehose? It was like -6 or -7 at 925 and like +2 at 850? Then it finally tossed the idea once inside 48h, but the soundings just now reminded me of that.
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Reggie is way colder at H85 than the NAM in the 66-72 hr timeframe....thats a decent hit for eastern areas on 18z run.
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You just woke up James from his nap in his bed of feathers up above...
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18z Reggie looks pretty decently amped through 45 hours.
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2-3” would feel like a KU this winter
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It's funny that the 925 temps are like -7 while 850 is struggling to be below 0C.....dendrites below the warm layer?
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I mean, we don’t really care if there is an SSW or not if the TPV is being stretched and ripped apart. Part of the intrigue with SSWs is that they will propagate down into the troposphere and cause the PV to get displaced and/or stretched/split. If the latter is already happening, then it’s the end-game we were rooting for. Id say the only thing a big SSW and SPV-split can do is often it may prolong the tropospheric PV (TPV) being displaced and broken.
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Yeah if we get the PV down into Hudson Bay like that, then there’s more wiggle room to deal with western troughing. It will help promote more confluence in addition to better antecedent airmasses.
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Fwiw, that EPO ridge goes whacko on the GEFS this run...it's covering a large part of the arctic ocean. Quite a bit more amplified than the EPS
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What do the geese say about the upcoming storm? Any chance it backs further west?
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Latest echoes are 32.1F drizzle/light rain here. May have been a sleet pellet mixed in, but didn't wait outside to really confirm if I was just hearing things. At least everything is white for the next few hours.
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Is there a Euro/JMA rule? Lol....those are the two models that show a good hit.
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There were some offsetting features....12z was a bit stronger with the H5 closed low, but the whole thing was just a smidge east of 06z....the expanded H5 low helped offset the microscopic east trend. It's still an outlier though....I was wanting to see more help at 12z than we got. Just about all model guidance shifted west towards it but not by enough IMHO. We'll see though....we've had some of these weird "backing up" storms trend hard in the final 60 hours before.
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Actually it might as good as 06z...lol....it's backing up surprisingly well at 78h
