ORH_wxman

Actually get a little band back into central SNE on Monday

Nice head fake on Euro....looked more amped at 42 and then slid east anyway

Euro def looks a touch more amped at 42h.

Yeah he's thinking of the Jan 1-3, 2010 storm.

Top analogue right now is the retro storm from Dec 21, 2010 that crushed the Cape. That one was a little different though in that is mostly backed in from the E and ENE I feel like and this one will be a little bit more from the ESE as it comes in....at least for round 1. That round 2 that some guidance tries to get in here would be more from the NE.

So far, most guidance at least gets a couple inches back to BOS, with some having nearly warning criteria....the only model that doesnt get any precip west of the canal is the GFS. We'll see what the Euro says in about 40 min.

Ukie didn't come west from 00z....it already had soem light snow over eastern SNE and this run does as well, but we didn't see that bigger type solution that 12z GGEM/NAM/RGEM had.

Would be nice to finally time some confluence right, which is what it happening on those 12z runs GFS/GGEM...perfect timing on that shortwave in Ontario/Quebec to force it underneath.

GGEM is all snow for SNE too on 1/19-20 except maybe the Cape and south coast.

I think it was 1936...may have been 1937 though.

GFS is coming in a lot flatter again for Jan 19-20. I think at minimum, NNE has a good chance to keep that one frozen, but perhaps even SNE can get in on the game if we keep that trend up.

IT has that round 2 early Monday which adds another couple inches.

Yeah that winter was a furnace, but we had that one obscene cold shot. Not easy to get Logan airport on the water to -9F.....I think that was their 3rd coldest reading of all time at the current airport site. Only Feb 1943 and Jan 1957 were colder.

When did they build the airport outside of town? Does it usually radiate there or not? I remember it being kind of elevated when I flew in there. If it's an airport that typically radiates but there's been a lot of recent development around it (ala IAD-Dulles), then you'd drastically lessen the chances of matching low temps again even if a similar airmass happened.

Looked a bit west at 60h with the main band. If other guidance aligns with the NAM/Euro/RGEM, then I'd toss the GFS for now. We'll see what the others say soon.

Forgot about 1985....but yeah, -16 is still brutal cold for them. So yeah, I wouldn't count on it happening again any time soon. Prob need a perfect delivery and it's still possible. BOS and ORH had their coldest readings since 1957 back during the cold shot in Feb 2016....it was a brief but intense cold shot on a perfect trajectory for SNE, so that's how it's done.

GFS just grazes the Cape.

I think that temp is still like a top 3 all time low for them. So yea....not happening.

GFS coming in west too....but it's been the furthest east model, so not a surprise. We'll see if it actually gets far enough west for a decent impact this run.

They set their all time record low that day....so unlikely.

Yeah it has the look where there could be some ugly light snow or snizzle almost prior to the main band getting onshore....it's all saturated up through like 850mb, but then dry as a bone at H7 before that band makes it. With 900-925 so cold, I'd imagine that will help try and form ice crystals in the low levels. No shortage of salt nuclei in this setup. But I think the steadier stuff would need upper level support...need that H5 low to really expand northwest as shown on those 12z runs.

Both NAM and Reggie have a 2nd wave of precip for early Monday. It's like a 6-8 hour lull and then another pulse....though Reggie kind of never really shuts it off...more like lightens it up and then tries to pulse it up again for 6 hours. This is where the bust aspect could come in we're fishing for a positive bust....we end up with like 18+ hours of steady snows if it never really shuts off...and if not all of that snow is light snow, then you will see some good amounts. There's plenty of reason though to keep all the caution flags up though. Really tedious setup.

Reggie is not as intense as NAM though....band kind of weakens pretty quickly once it's onshore.

Yeah came west from 06z too.

Here's the actual song being played in Feb '94...it's right at the beginning