ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yes.
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The guidance post-12z seems to be trending more toward the round 2 stuff and less emphasis on that initial band in round 1 on Sunday afternoon. We’ll see if 00z keeps that up or reverses trends. It’s been a pretty volatile system on guidance.
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Coming west with the bigger band on Sunday too. Though again, it remained the eastern outlier at 12z so it had to come west…hitting the cape by 48h. Not sure if it will reach BOS this run.
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Yeah it hammered almost all of E MA from ORH eastward. There was a pretty good gradient just west of ORH though where the dryslot was able to punch in from the SW and they also didn’t get some of the heaviest bands that developed at the height of the storm. That CCB band at the end collapsing SE that dumped like 8” in two hours is what put it over the top from a run-of-the-mill 15 incher to a 2 footer. Further west missed most of that band.
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Lets not get hyperbolic....after a summer GTG on the golf course with me, Bob, and a few edibles with Ginxy meeting us for a beer afterwards, I will enamor you with tales of Feb 5, 2001 to Jan 12, 2011 to even Feb 1983 if we have to stoop to such levels.... you'll be ready to run through a wall again searching for that W CT HECS.
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Lower levels should cool quite quickly tonight...I'd expect most everyone is at or below freezing by 09z outside of the coastal spots. So any snow that is in the 09z-15z time range early tomorrow should stick. I don't really expect much of anything in that time range, but should it materialize, it should be cold enough for something better than white rain.
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It has the Monday round 2 snows too that are more widespread...kind of like at 12z.
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18z RAP had a little snow too....but again, nothing like the HRRR
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Like it brought an inch from ORH to maybe Windham county near Garth...you get a little less, like maybe a half inch verbatim. Gvies Scooter to N RI like 3 inches though, lol. It's prob on crack, but might as well keep an eye out. 3k had a little bit in eastern areas but not like the HRRR
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3k was trying to get some precip into eastern areas overnight tonight too...not the full blown advisory snow event that the HRRR had, but maybe some light sleet/snow for a time.
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Yeah on Monday night....lol. This whole setup is kind of a clown show. I don't expect model guidance to be consistent on this, so we're kind of going old school with each model cycle....back to the 1990s and early 2000s when you'd have 100 mile shifts inside of 48 hours.
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It’s just nice to maybe get a pattern where we can track stuff. Hell we are already tracking a couple potential threats.
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I feel like this could wobble a lot from run to run because the E vs W trend isn’t solely reliant on normal shortwave mechanics. It’s this elongated massive ULL with a lot of vort lobes rotating around.
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Lol. Slays E MA
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NAM coming in solidly east of 12z.
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If you stuff the PV just east of Hudson bay like on the ensembles, then you end up with a really nice pattern even with the ridge retrograding. That's a really cold look....obviously cutters are still a threat (we had 1 or 2 in Jan '94 even)....but I'll take my chances with that look.
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Still some pretty big differences between EPS and GEFS in the long range....heck, even decent differences in the D8-9 range.
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Quick advisory event that isn't forecasted? I think it was MLK weekend in 2009 we had something like that...it was the day after a larger event. I remember models had almost nothing and then radar starts exploding to the south in a very meridional flow like we have currently, and Ekster walks into the BOX office and says "shit, I need to hoist advisories for 3-5"....." It worked out too, I think i had a quick 4 inches that evening.
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Yeah dryslot punched into CT and RI but it collapsed SE before making it into most of central and eastern MA. Once in a generation storm for the Cape.
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Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol)
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Yeah when I was looking at it around 138 hours, I was thinking it might be a decent solution, but then it just kept rolling up into the lakes....it does eventually get forced east, but too late for SNE....big hit for Whites over into Maine
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Euro is pretty close though...it just misses the timing on the northern shortwave in Canada....still a good hit for NNE. That system is a pure timing system....it doesn't have this great antecedent airmass or anything like that...its simply "can the main shortwave time itself with the Canadian shortwave so that the resulting confluence can force it underneath SNE"....that's really all we're trying to do here.
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Euro hasn't exactly been a beacon of trustworthiness when it's an outlier at day 6-7. I'd rather it show a flatter solution, but it doesn't get the benefit these days.
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Seems to be unanimous agreement on the 12z runs (still pending Euro) of next Thursday being more favorable than prior runs. We'll see if that sticks....they are all showing some well-timed confluence up north forcing it south of us, which is something we haven't been able to get this winter at all. But sometimes it just take a little good-timing in a crap pattern to get off the mat.
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We're essentially relying on the upper low expanding to push the precip west on this. It does expand pretty well but a difference of 30-50 miles is like night and day on sensible wx. It did shove precip back into central SNE eventually, but that initial band wasn't west of the canal like the NAM/GGEM/RGEM
