ORH_wxman

Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015….

I’m tossing the Canadian guidance on this. Cold/southern outliers.

GFS really hitting the IVT with the upper level energy hanging back. Always tough to buy into that but when you see good upper level support, you don’t want to ignore it either.

Yeah so basically 1956 ending…like I said. Agreed that would save it but even an awesome longwave pattern is unlikely to produce that result again.

I mean, if I’m still sitting in single digit snowfall by mid February, even a great March won’t save it from ratter…maybe late Feb/March 1956 here would save it, but that’s a pretty big bar to clear, lol.

Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up.

We’ll see how the storm threats start looking post-1/25….we’ve def seen a bit of a sag south in the snow gradient compared to earlier this month. But for SNE to do well with western troughing, we want to see that PV get down into Hudson Bay or Quebec. That happens on pretty much all ensemble guidance around the 25th so we may actually have some good antecedent airmasses after that time. 1/19-20 and 1/23-24 are uphill battles due to the lack of good antecedent airmasses and storms coming out of the OH valley.

It was about the best possible type of snow for a small event for kids to play in. We had about 2” or so but the piles from shoveling seem more like a 4-6” snowfall. Very dense snow.

You’re in a great spot. I really like the CON to PWM corridor in this one for a solid low end warning event.

RGEM is pretty cold. Lot of snow for the pike region. Not changing my thought based off of that run, but something to note in case other guidance comes in colder too.

The IVT alone may give many 2”…even down into SNE. Though better odds north of of pike. The main slug looks like mostly rain south of NH border…close for you but I’m still pretty leery of another tick or two warmer/north which takes you out of that part of the storm.

Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be.

I’d feel decent north of MA/NH border for Thursday. I’m punting down here though in the pike region until we’re much closer. This has one of those CON to PWM type vibes.

There were like sub-PV lobes in western Canada after Xmas. The bulk of the cold in the NHEM was not on our side of the pole after that Xmas arctic shot (were talking like last week of Dec through mid-Jan currently). That is going to change. So now, at least if/when we get a cutter in the newer pattern, there’s some legit cold behind it to try and reload again for the next threat. The past few weeks, we’d get a cutter and the temp behind it would still be pretty mild.

What I’m saying is I don’t think it was clear whether he meant the pattern beyond that. If he’s referring to the Jan 23-24 system and the cold shot behind it, it’s possible that ends up mirroring the Dec 23-25 period. But beyond Jan 24, things look a lot different than that. Pattern broke down to torchy shortly after Xmas, and this time it appears we’re getting a significantly colder look for late January.

Can’t disagree with him though on either Thursdays system or the pattern beyond. Latitude is going to be a premium variable with the SE ridge.

I dunno, sounded kind of wishy-washy. The pattern broke down pretty quick after Xmas, but this time the pattern is getting established after Jan 23-24 so it’s not an analogous comparison to that evolution. The pattern could always shit the bed I suppose. That’s def a possibility.

I’d be tossing them far and wide for S ME into S/C NH…down here I feel like we don’t get those lower level temps established at all…maybe some drain during the event with a little help of wetbulbing. But the subtle colder trend is encouraging.

The look is pretty darned good beyond D9…the Jan 23-24 system is definitely precarious which is what precedes that cold blast…maybe that’s what he was cryptically talking about. But it’s hard to say the EPS doesn’t look good for us beyond that. We all don’t really care what it looks like though if there’s no snow, so a lot of this is mostly moot in here. We’re actually tracking potential snow events prior to that anyway. They look best for NNE but can’t rule them out down here yet.

RGEM is pretty cold too. Not buying these colder solutions until we’re way closer though.

The snow is really dense…prob a little bit of sleet in there too…makes for good staying power even with temps in the mid 30s. We’ll prob lose most of it though over the next couple days as temps nudge above 40F.

Was that Jan ‘99? I think that one had temps ridiculously cold at the onset. Trying to think of some ice storms from back then…obv it wasn’t Jan ‘98…and I can’t remember any other ones…Feb 14, 1997 was kind of big in ORH. But we didn’t have a half inch radial ice in that one. Maybe a quarter inch which is still pretty good.

And you almost always need active for a major icing event (say, greater than 3/8th radial)…though you can maybe get close if the low level antecedent airmass is extremely good, but that’s kind of hard to do without having a lot of sleet and snow contamination eating up QPF on the front end…which then by default means less QPF as ZR.

The PV placement is definitely key when we have the huge Aleutian ridge with some western troughing and a SE ridge. If it’s west of Hudson Bay, we’re in for a rough time mostly, but over or (preferably) east of Hudson Bay, and we can do really well. There will still be cutter risk of course but typically even the cutters in that type of setup have triple point lows that tend to limit how long we warm sector in New England.

Nah. I can buy some sleet in a small zone but icing (freezing rain) will be almost non-existent in this. Maybe a really small area in high terrain somewhere south of the snow line but it’s likely negligible. This is prob a cold rain for most of us until after the main low passes and then we could get an area of light snow as the upper level energy hangs back. But that might end up north too if the whole system trends north which these always have a good chance of doing.