ORH_wxman

We had a solid coating of sleet here a while ago but we’re just plain cold rain at the moment.

I think the best chance up in NE MA prior to the IVT is later tonight...that second round of really intense lift seems to collapse the snow line back south into NE MA after about 03z (10pm).

Yeah if people don't like it, they should log off for a while. Excessive trolling won't be tolerated either...people not here in good faith won't last long (or get post limited)....but otherwise, we will continue to discuss the pattern, even if it is sucky or keeps screwing us.

Absolutely pelting here now....few mangled flakes mixing in

18z NAM is the type of solution you want to see to get snow into SNE and even further south....but I'm very skeptical of it at the moment. Perfect needle-threader it needs to be.

Looks like it has flipped to fatties on the south side of ORH on the holy cross webcam https://www.holycross.edu/webcams/recreation-center

Yeah I’d roll the dice on that pattern. There will prob be a cutter threat or two but at least in that look, you have a decent chance of turning them into SWFEs or minimizing the warmth from them.

That run certainly was for snowfall. Pattern is def different though. Hopefully results are similar. Would be funny if Monday actually ended up working out considering it’s the worst of all the looks.

Pelting sleet back at home now.

New Ipswich jackpot run

Driving through downtown Sherborn and windshield is getting pelted.

Where are you again? Even BDR has never had 3.5” in a season.

They still had like 4” of snow depth from the first storm prior to blizzard of 78 hitting at Logan airport. I’d be surprised if Cambridge had nothing. ORH still had 11” of pack.

People getting overly invested in crappy setups (1/23 and 1/25) Nothing beyond that has changed.

The longevity of the pattern change can be debated, but lets not pretend it's not a pattern change. I actually agree February is probably going to revert back to typical Feb Nina climo....but ignoring the fundamental shift in the NHEM pattern at least for a while post-1/25 isn't being honest.

GGEM is more like what you want to see for 1/25 if we're not getting a coastal out of it....you have that front-running shortwave in Canada get well out ahead of the southern stream piece which allows a decent high to set up. That at least gives you a solid chance for a SWFE.

Post-1/25 is objectively a pattern change though.

Yeah after the 25th, we get arctic air in here for the first time since Xmas Eve. So we'll see if we can pop something in the final week of the month or early February while the PV is close by us....we can handle some revision back to western troughing as long as the PV is nearby Hudson Bay or eastward. Once it retreats back toward the pole or if it ends up in western Canada, then we're cooked. There's a possibility it could sort of split too...EPS hints at that....one piece does end up in western Canada but another is to our northeast over Labador....that type of setup can work too. Early Feb 2017 was like that when we got blitzed with multiple storms.

It's ironic that only today's system has any type of decent high....and of course, today's system has the worst airmass of any of the next 3 threats. Rearranging the pieces but they always follow Murphy's Law....whatever type of combo gives the least snow.

It redevelops....it's basically a SWFE, but any marginal cold gets mostly advected out due to a weak low front-running the main system up in Canada.....it's the same theme....we cannot buy a solid high. It does give some snow though north of the pike and more up into NH/ME. The 25th is another storm where if there is any type of high, the airmass would be more than good enough for snow even though it's not an arctic airmass.

The 25th on GFS almost looks like today's storm.

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Need something more like the NAM to have a chance....GFS went the right direction to try for it, but you can see how ridiculous of a needle-threader it is for SNE. Almost not worth even tracking here....but we're watching models anyway for 1/25 so I guess we're gonna see it one way or the other. Hopefully it doesn't come back in amped...it would be nice for at least part of NE to get something from it.

I'd really only apply the "NAM has a warm bias" when we're more like 60 hours out until very close in....at 84 hours, it's so far out that it can be wrong in all sorts of directions which is frequently is. Some other guidance was trying to come in flatter though on that, so it's not on a total island. It's still a really bad setup though....even an ideal track would probably struggle to snow inside of 495 and southeast of I-84 in CT.

Technically BOS has already had an advisory event though....they cleared 3" in the 1/15-16 event