ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah the GFS run does share the wealth pretty good. Obviously that requires both parts of the storm to go as advertised but it’s a good solution to make snow lovers fairly happy
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Yeah starting to get hard to ignore the Monday stuff. I’d still like to see the sfc low hand back a little more. The more low level support for that CCB, I think the best chance it can go nuts….help keep the BL from trying to dry out a little.
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GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z
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I’ll just say that there are some select posters who have a long track record going back many years (in some cases a decade plus) before this winter and there’s a reason if any of them have restrictions on their account. I’ll leave it at that as well.
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Yeah I’m not super impressed by the CCB right now. I think the sfc low is prob gonna outrun things a little too much to make this really good…but I can see maybe a good 4-6 hour burst in marginal temps that drops a couple inches….maybe a little more if lucky. I’d love to be wrong…there is still some upside bust potential here. So I’ll keep an eye on the short term stuff tomorrow and tomorrow night. Phase 1 of the storm looks like 90% rain here…so not all that interested in that south of N ORH hills.
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I don't think this event has ever really been a true SWFE. It’s mostly been a coastal (albeit a hugger at times) once we were inside of 4-5 days. It just has no high pressure so most of the solutions have been pretty warm.
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It’s meaningless…without any real discussion, you might as well debate whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. Yeah someone will be correct, but it doesn’t mean anything when there was no skill to it.
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I’m fine with pessimism as long as it’s backed up by some legit meteorology. But when they aren’t and it’s clearly an attempt to troll, then there’s a reason the reactions are what they are.
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Yeah that run crushes you. 12+. Doubt it ends up that prolific though.
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It looks like the Monday stuff is real and that’s where most of the snow south of NH border will come from. I’m skeptical of crazy 1-2” per hour stuff but I could see a 6-8 hour period of light to moderate snow that dumps 2-3”.
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Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB
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The 18z run was so cold that I find it almost unrealistic that 00z would come in colder or hold serve.
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I’m still expecting a slight tick back north to take pike region out of any front end snow…I think we could get some in the CCB on Monday but I’m not buying the violent solutions that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. Hopefully I’m wrong though and we tick it one more nudge colder.
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Yeah N CT got mostly skunked but that inch line prob got down a bit south of the pike…at least in some areas.
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That map isn’t final. ORH had 3”+ and that map shows like an inch. I had almost 2” down here.
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He said there was no pattern change. I tried to engage a little bit a couple days ago when it briefly looked like he wanted to discuss in good faith…but that quickly went by the wayside. Having the PV move down to Hudson Bay is something we haven’t seen for a month. There’s still western troughing, but there’s arctic air nearby now so we’ll have some chances. It prob goes to shit as we go deeper into February….I haven’t disagreed with that part, but that’s out in clown range for now.
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I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though.
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Typically that doesn’t end up mattering much but in a really marginal setup it can be the difference. Tip likes to call it “cold capped”….ala Dec ‘97 storm. If you have trouble heating the sfc, then the adjacent 925-950 layer ends up maybe one half tick colder and that could matter for those on the line.
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3k looked great for ORH-ASH line.
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I’d be officially invested where you are now. I still need to see another bump to convince me but it’s looking more likely that even my area gets a little in the CCB.
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18z NAM coming in colder but 12z was pretty torchy/north so not a shock. We’ll see just how far south it comes.
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Yeah I’ll maybe bite if 00z big boy models keep trending that way. Literally trying to thread a needle without anything to guide the thread.
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It was a system that got crunched south. We were forecasted to get like 2-4” in ORH and then at the last second they downgraded to 1-2” and we actually got zero…not a single flake. But about 10 miles south had 3” and there were some spots in CT that had 4-6”
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Colder than the 12z run. Not buying them yet though. EPS also wasn’t really buying the OP run’s vicious ending…though it had a weaker version of it.
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You didn’t get anything in the 12/11/97 event? Maybe Norwalk was barely on wrong side of R/S line
