ORH_wxman

I’ve been examining soundings a bit more and if there’s a bust potential at least here near the pike and into metrowest Boston region, it’s that snow would hang on longer….the warm layer is extremely elevated. It’s actually up around H7 and not even the usual “very high up” 725-750 level. NAM even has the warmest layer closer to 675mb….and it’s super thin. It stays like that for a few hours in the 08z to 11z timeframe.

Yeah I’m not biting on any positive busts here. My guess is 2-3” front end here before the sleet and then we add another inch or two of crapola. But I’ll be keeping an eye on it tonight. If sleet holds off until like 9-10z, then we might pull off 4-6” on the front end

Looks like BDL current wetbulb is about 33.

You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post).

There will likely be more than one shot in this pattern. Obv big signal is there near 10th and just beyond but it looks pretty ripe for additional potential through the equinox anyway.

Both were trying to hit your area down to metrowest harder with CCB tomorrow. I’m Still not biting on that but it’s gotten more interesting today.

NAM is trending quite a bit better with the thump. Esp pike region into NH border area.

Very similar tracks actually. Primary went into about CLE/ERI in that one and the secondary popped just quick enough to turn a 6-10” event into a 12-18” event. Yeah…too bad we didn’t have a real airmass like that one did.

Let’s close those MLs off about 30-40 miles southwest and watch BOS go 12/9/05-light for a few hours.

8 or 9 to 1 sugar there.

Still going wild with the thump in CT up into ORH region.

Cutter is def possible. Just less likely than background state when you have a west based block. My recommendation (which will go unheeded, who am I kidding? lol) is to not really look at any OP runs beyond D6-7 during all of this. Stick to the ensembles and watch the clusters.

Let’s see if we can go until mid April before hitting 60 again.

Yep. And this thump is at night time so I’m not worried about insolation eating away at accumulations. That really wouldn’t matter anyway in heavy rates…but it might in something just a little more marginal like 3/4 to 1/2 mile vis type snow. If the thump ends up being most 1 mile vis light snow, then it wasn’t worth getting stressed out about anyway. You cost yourself like an inch of snow. The faux sfc layer isn’t going to be the difference between 6” and 2” tonight.

Let’s collapse a few of those cages around the saplings.

Oceanstwx beat me to it in a more efficient post.

Wetbulb temp is like 31F at ORH and that’s with asos running a bit warm. I typically look at it this way….if there is going to be precip/snow worth really getting excited about, it’s going to wipe out that faux near-ground warm layer pretty quickly. If it can’t wipe it out, you weren’t missing much to begin with. Maybe you get 1-2” of glop instead of 3” of baking soda over 5 hours. But we were going to rip 6” in 5 hours, it’s mostly gonna happen even with the warmer sfc to start. You maybe lose a fraction on the front end, but otherwise dumping 0.15-0.20 per hour in the bucket is gonna wipe out the BL very quickly.

Yeah opposite trend of what the short term mesos have been showing. Guess we’ll see who is right soon.

Child’s play. We had one a few days ago that had like 70 inches over NE Ma. Lol

Even where I am, I’m not expecting warning criteria. But something to watch this afternoon on the trends for late this evening…latest rap is showing the increasing snows in CT/RI as well.

Latest hrrr pounds N CT with warning criteria. Been trending toward bigger rates in that 03z-07z timeframe.

Dewpoints are really what we want to look at. It’s the wetbulb temps that matter not the sfc temps at noontime in March sunshine in an unsaturated column.

Stubborn GFS on that CCB. Still not buying it.

I’m sure someone has the FV3 to post. Prob gives you warning criteria.

Normally I’d like seeing things collapsing SE near the islands but the problem is the midlevel centers get initially too far north so we can’t really crush +SN for 6 hours like we normally might. We’re getting hammered by an easterly 850 flow while we’re dryslotted aloft…maybe midlevels collapse faster as we get closer….but we’d need it to really take advantage. Still thinking 3-4” of crud here mostly from the thump.