ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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You can already see the 12z NAM will be south of 06z through 6 hours. Question is how far south.
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Main precip shield doesn’t get in here until tonight and that’s what will be rain. Any scattered stuff earlier will prob be snow.
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HRRR looks violent on Monday.
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Yeah we’ll you aren’t getting much on the front end so most of us are relying on the monday CCB stuff south of ORH-ASH line.
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It’s the furthest north outlier at the moment so it’s prob wrong. But in this winter, I get hedging.
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https://www.simpleimageresizer.com
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Main shortwave goes negative pretty far west. If that can be tamed just a bit then it would mean a lot more snow in the front end. There will still be plenty of snow up there on the front end but you may have a decent period of pingers/ZR too.
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I’m kind of skeptical for us still. I think we’ll get accumulating snow but I’m still leaning on like 2-3” from the Monday stuff. But admittedly I’m still “worried” about a big positive bust. My snowblower is still in the backyard shed. I take it out every year in December. Never bothered this year and haven’t needed it.
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Yeah the GFS run does share the wealth pretty good. Obviously that requires both parts of the storm to go as advertised but it’s a good solution to make snow lovers fairly happy
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Yeah starting to get hard to ignore the Monday stuff. I’d still like to see the sfc low hand back a little more. The more low level support for that CCB, I think the best chance it can go nuts….help keep the BL from trying to dry out a little.
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GFS looks a touch colder maybe than 18z
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I’ll just say that there are some select posters who have a long track record going back many years (in some cases a decade plus) before this winter and there’s a reason if any of them have restrictions on their account. I’ll leave it at that as well.
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Yeah I’m not super impressed by the CCB right now. I think the sfc low is prob gonna outrun things a little too much to make this really good…but I can see maybe a good 4-6 hour burst in marginal temps that drops a couple inches….maybe a little more if lucky. I’d love to be wrong…there is still some upside bust potential here. So I’ll keep an eye on the short term stuff tomorrow and tomorrow night. Phase 1 of the storm looks like 90% rain here…so not all that interested in that south of N ORH hills.
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I don't think this event has ever really been a true SWFE. It’s mostly been a coastal (albeit a hugger at times) once we were inside of 4-5 days. It just has no high pressure so most of the solutions have been pretty warm.
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It’s meaningless…without any real discussion, you might as well debate whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. Yeah someone will be correct, but it doesn’t mean anything when there was no skill to it.
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I’m fine with pessimism as long as it’s backed up by some legit meteorology. But when they aren’t and it’s clearly an attempt to troll, then there’s a reason the reactions are what they are.
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Yeah that run crushes you. 12+. Doubt it ends up that prolific though.
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It looks like the Monday stuff is real and that’s where most of the snow south of NH border will come from. I’m skeptical of crazy 1-2” per hour stuff but I could see a 6-8 hour period of light to moderate snow that dumps 2-3”.
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Yeah and it looks closer to other guidance now. It is probably going to go gangbusters again though on the CCB
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The 18z run was so cold that I find it almost unrealistic that 00z would come in colder or hold serve.
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I’m still expecting a slight tick back north to take pike region out of any front end snow…I think we could get some in the CCB on Monday but I’m not buying the violent solutions that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. Hopefully I’m wrong though and we tick it one more nudge colder.
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Yeah N CT got mostly skunked but that inch line prob got down a bit south of the pike…at least in some areas.
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That map isn’t final. ORH had 3”+ and that map shows like an inch. I had almost 2” down here.
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He said there was no pattern change. I tried to engage a little bit a couple days ago when it briefly looked like he wanted to discuss in good faith…but that quickly went by the wayside. Having the PV move down to Hudson Bay is something we haven’t seen for a month. There’s still western troughing, but there’s arctic air nearby now so we’ll have some chances. It prob goes to shit as we go deeper into February….I haven’t disagreed with that part, but that’s out in clown range for now.
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I figured we were at the max last night but then today happened. At some point it will stop though.
