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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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GFS still not biting on the NAM/HRRR optimism. Pretty weak sauce on the thump. Bit of a model battle.
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00z NAM is quite a thump too
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I doubt it trends much…it’s been amazingly consistent for days (I know Tip posted something similar). But small nuances could help…if we can get just a little more vort energy on the eastern flank of that trough, it would really help that WCB be more intense and perhaps also nudge the secondary reflection a little deeper which would lock in lower level cold more efficiently. We’re not talking drastic changes but it could be like the difference between 2” and then rain with temps getting to 40-43F in a place like Bedford versus 5” and temps never really getting above 35F.
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There’s almost two different WAA precip batches…the first initial one is pretty good from like N NJ to S CT and it’s weakening as it lifts north from there and then another reorganizes about 8 hours later but by that point, we’re starting to warm aloft so that batch is mainly for N of MA/NH border. We got caught in between….hopefully that doesn’t happen but some models have shown that. 18z NAM actually got us decent with the initial band. Didn’t weaken it as fast.
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Jet mechanics FTW. I think Chris posted it earlier and I was discussing yesterday, but we have a pretty impressive left exit region with this CCB so that got the job done. Sometimes we’ll have a ULL/energy swinging underneath us but not much jet assist, and it can just be light to moderate stuff, but we were able to get that extra enhanced lift to get heavy bands.