ORH_wxman

Jerry is really enjoying his retirement....

Funny you said that....GGEM tries it this run. This is def a pattern that could produce a legit ice storm. They are not easy to get, but this is the type of pattern you want to maximize the odds.

Weenie flakes here for the past 20 min....not remotely steady enough for any accumulations. Radar definitely looks more impressive than I was expecting over E PA/NJ/DE/MD at this point. Lots of 1/4 mile SN/+SN obs in that stuff....so we'll see how it looks in a couple hours.

In your 'hood...prob 9-10pm-ish?

Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs. This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89)

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

Doesn't look like much of anything...maybe a few flurries or showers? Looks prety warm int he BL unless that weak sfc low trends a bit south. Best lift is well north so I'm not expecting much precip in that. Maybe a tenth or two of QPF. NNE could see a band of 3-5"...esp up by powderfreak.

Yep, I mentioned this several times in the past couple of days....the vort is just too far west for the classic big thump on the front end....this will be more like a steady light snow that flips after an inch or two. Slight chance at something more if those beefier echoes move in just in time a couple hours before the flip, but I wouldn't count on it in our area. Further north they'll have that chance.

Yeah they are probably going to slay.....I think we'll get a good system or two as well...but hopefully we don't have to wait until like 2/5. Would be nice to cash one in before that.

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

12z RAP has like 3-4" here while 12z NAM has maybe an inch or less.

LAtest RAP is almost trying to pull a NAM from yesterday....but it looks like an outlier at the moment.

Desperation sets in after a while I think for some. It clouds judgement and then you have emotional hedging too…they might sort of think the pattern is actually fine, but it’s still not super easy to snow even in good patterns (esp southern zones near water), and if it doesn’t this time, it feels like winter is totally shot…so best to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if it pans out.

There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice.

CNE/NNE got their mojo back AWT in this pattern. Hopefully SNE can get going a bit here in the next couple weeks.

I didn’t hate that run…decent overrunning potential shown there even if it didn’t crush us verbatim on that run.

NAM keeps interior in the 30s. Maybe near 40F at the peak. But it torches SE of a BOS-IJD line.

On that map I’d say the risk is fairly low. PV is pretty far southeast and heights out west aren’t that low. Prior to that though, the risk is higher with lower heights out west….so 1/30-2/1 could be a cutter but it could also be a a snowier solution depending on all the shortwave nuances we can’t predict yet.

Yeah HRRR and RGEM were more like 2-4” (maybe a little higher up by you)….There’s some synoptic stuff I don’t love about this one if we’re trying to slam 4-6” in 6-8 hours. Usually want to see a nice broad area of isentropic lift well out ahead and it’s kind of meh…NAM does try for a narrower area and it’s fairly intense, but I hate relying on a thin band. A little shift east or slight increase I confluence would probably do wonders.

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range.

That was a nightmare month up there. I remember Scooter had like 15” from one of the storms and you were posting a crust of like 2” glacier that had refrozen after a massive cutter. The silver lining was that it didn’t last into February. Pattern flipped and NNE got annihilated the rest of the winter. Went up to Sunday River around the equinox in March that year and they must’ve had 45”+ on the level where we were staying. Up at the mountain it was even more than that.

Yeah it’s one of those classic gradient looks where it could be quite prolific if nuances/areas of confluence break right for us…and if they don’t, it could be a real 1980s pattern with cutter and then arctic cold shots behind them.

Def overperformed over a large area. Not a lot of models had widespread 12-18” amounts over CNE…even the weenie clown maps. A few RGEM runs had around 12-14” but even that wasn’t high enough in many spots up there.

NAM still looks quite thumpy down here. HRRR was pretty meh this run.

Yeah prob run into the WAA band on the way down.