ORH_wxman

13.5" and +7.6 on temps.

Oh it’s def looks above normal to me beyond Feb 10th…but not in the same way January was. January (at least until the last week here) had an utter dearth of cold up north….we look to get mild because of SE ridge flexing but the EPO ridge remains intact, at least through mid-Feb…we’ll see about beyond that…which means we still have a cold loading pattern into Canada and N Plains…so even if we are above normal, there could easily be an event or two mixed in when you time your cold shots correctly.

LOL…this was pretty good

Not sure when you joined the boards, but he has an extremely long track record (like a decade) of downplaying cold/snow and hyping warmth….think JB in reverse. So he will look good in torch periods even if it’s for the wrong reasons.

I don’t mind seeing it down there right now.

EPS has them…but obviously they can go either way. The d6-7 sig was actually probably the best one and not a few days later like the OP run had.

Looks like the pinger line is near HFD

It def looks a bit worse to me than guidance earlier today had it. Might not make a huge difference up there but the dryslot never looked this big until we were really close in.

Guidance has trended less CAD today so not sure it’s going to stay below 40F over interior…maybe up by rt 2 back to N Berkshires. This whole system just trended more influence from the primary….which is part of the reason the forcing in the snow portion of this sucks so bad. We wanted more fording further east.

Yeah we’ll see. I can def buy it over SE zones but not sure how far NW those amounts will get. I’m certainly skeptical of some of those 3” amounts we saw from mesos earlier.

GFS still trying to give me an inch and a quarter.

Yea maybe se MA does but I’m not expecting more than about 7 or 8 tenths looking at things. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was closer to a half inch….though there will be some convective elements in there so you can still get some decent amounts.

I mean, it didn't look impressive to begin with in SNE....we were largely missing out on the good forcing while we were cold enough for snow. I posted my concerns yesterday on how far west the vort was. But yeah, we somehow managed to underperform a 1-2" forecast in a SWFE.

Yes I think so...by the time more steady stuff moves in later this evening, it's going to be rain (maybe a short period of marginal ZR in spots or a few pingers up by Rt 2).

In a normal winter, all that stuff in NJ would be fire-hosing right into SNE right now and we’d be talking 6-8” front ender but this is winter ‘22-23 where we take otherwise decent setups, and mold them into dogshit.

Guidance has been cutting back on QPF for later too ive noticed.

Still can't believe we got almost completely skunked on that pattern (save for the small 12/11 event)....but it does happen (similar pattern occurred in Dec '87 where we got mostly skunked)

Never be afraid of what other posters think of your snow...the forum is for sharing obs and snow pics.

Blues over the east didn't do much good either.

Yes....though at least it's not as bad as it used to be. Remember on Eastern back in the day when we'd all be in the same model threads as DC posters? Every other threat, all the New England posters would be slapping high fives while getting death threats from Mid-Atlantic posters.

Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by.

There's a big break in the precip over NNJ that may temporarily put an end to the snow, but we'll see if the stuff behind it expands more...it's kind of close for W CT folks looking at the trajectory.

The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining.

I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now.

Euro also looks interesting for 2/1. Snow to ice over interior.