ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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#11 on the list is also a funny one.....1968-1969. Then all hell broke loose in Feb '69. Too bad this isn't a weak Nino like that winter (though it didn't act like a Nino....actually acted like a Nina)
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Funny thing is if we assume BOS gets no additional measurable snowfall through end of January, this winter would "only" rank 15th for least snow through 1/31. 2006-2007 has the top spot....but other notables are 1988-1989, 2018-2019 (this one was surprising, but BOS did well in Feb/Mar that year), 1994-1995, and 1979-1980. 2011-2012 would actually rank 16th behind this year....
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That early? Nahhh
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Only way to stay sane this winter.
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Blizzard warnings issued....criteria has been adjusted for just the 2022-23 winter
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Yep....that warmup around 2/9=2/11 looks pretty transient....trying to reload at the end of the run....we'll see how it looks going forward.
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Yeah I'd figure they are close with CEF a little more. I was just curious where the CEF 49.5 came from....they don't have snow obs there since the 1960s.....there's a few coops that are kind of close by, but they aren't the same as first order airport obs.
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BDL seems high or CEF? What is the source of the CEF data they are using? Unfortunately Westover Field only kept snowfall data for about 20 years between the late 1940s-1960s
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Ukie actually tries for a snow event for south of pike for 1/31
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It might...unless the boom or bust seasons are occurring in roughly equal numbers, then it won't change it too much.
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BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5" Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4"
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Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean. For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2". BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean. If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1"
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Yes, not because of "5 bad ones in a row means i have a better shot at doing well next year"....you're offering an even money bet when we're about to go into an El Nino (that has a good chance at being modoki)....the fact that you said you would pull the bet if that didn't happen also means you agree with me that the El Nino factor is the real reason you're confident in better snow next season, not because of the voodoo "6 in a row".
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Well I wouldn't bet on it either because of the potential for El Nino....but outside of that, the other stuff doesn't matter. If we go into next year neutral ENSO, and you are still overwhelmingly confident in a big season, I'd take the bet with odds.
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The first part of your quote is perfectly valid....if we believe that we're going for a modoki El Nino, then there's reason to be think it's good. But the bolded is pretty much completely irrelevant. The reason you never had 6 in a row is because you previously never had 5 in a row (and rarely even had 3 or 4 in a row)....well, we already have had 5 in a row. That makes 6 in a row a hell of a lot easier when you already have 5 banked.
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At least the trend in this type of pattern is often to trend things north....doesn't always work, but there's a good SE ridge.
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Lack of snow cover too is a killer....you could prob get to 5F in a meh airmass but clear night with snow OTG
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Dry and a furnace....
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When has Ray not melted at some point during a KU? Maybe March 2018....but that's it.
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Thanks man....this is the type of top analysis we strive for on the forum.
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Yeah I don't see how having a bad season makes the next year more likely to be good. To me, that's like saying because I got 8 heads in a row, the next coin flip has a better shot at being tails....nope, the next coin toss is 50/50.
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EPS is still kind of likes 2/1 despite the OP run.
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@Sey-Mour Snow
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Nice west based-NAO block….really worked it’s magic. Deep -PNA but all that did was keep it active. The trough wasn’t digging into Baja California either.
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Late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 laughs at Kevin…or Dec ‘83 or Jan ‘76 or Jan ‘57
