ORH_wxman

I think it's just more ensemble members "Seeing" the 2/10-12 signal....the trough doesn't last though as SE ridge builds back quickly after that. But you can see that EPO ridge north of AK and it stays there....so that's one reason that February might have a sporadic cold shot or two mixed in with the mildness....we didn't have that look in January.

I think there's probably plenty of people (not even just weather enthusiasts) that became used to the higher snow winters of the 2000s/2010s not realizing that those are somewhat anomalous in the longer record. There's other periods that are fairly prolific, but once again, they aren't the norm, they are outlier periods and they are often preceded or followed by some crappy stretches (think 1940s/early 1950s or 1980s/early 1990s) Like I often have to tell people that BOS 48.2" snowfall average is not totally representative of the longer climate record. Snowfall isn't quite like temps....we get a monster sample of temperatures every year, but we do not get a big sample of snowfalls, so 30 years is pretty precarious to base a snowfall climo on.

Even the cold shots are timed surgically to maximize daily departures.

It’s possible but unlikely imho. I think out of the major NWS BOX New England sites, PVD would have the best shot at a top 5 futility. They are currently sitting at 4.9 inches and would need to finish under 11.8 to get a top 5 futility badge. If we go south and include BDR, they would have the best shot. They are sitting at 0.8” and they need to finish below 9.3” for a top 5 futile season.

We’re kind of almost getting there. I guess 2020-2021 interrupted the below normal streak here but other than that year, it’s been pretty shitty since 2017-18. I guess 2018-19 wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good either. Esp with Dec 2018 being an epic turd for snowfall.

It’s going to be funny if next season is even average snow…a lot of people are going to feel like it’s an abnormally snowy winter if that happens. Same with temps.

Even up here in the interior, almost all my snow has fallen at marginal temps. It’s been insane…feels like Virginia Beach. I think the only event over an inch that fell with cold temps (like below 30F) was the 12/11 system.

Clown range EPS has potential for one of those February 60+ or even 70+ torches on that look. Let’s get that in here if it’s not gonna snow….then get a big dog as we go into march and then call it a winter.

If we go through February snowless, then the futility records would get somewhat interesting but otherwise it’s not very compelling at the moment.

0.3

ORH is 21.2 for lowest all time. They are currently at 17.5” so it’s extremely unlikely they break the record. They’d have to set a new record for least snowfall beyond Feb 1st to get it. BDL was at 9.4” coming into today and their record is 14.7”…so unlikely for them too but more plausible than ORH.

2018 did have a warning event mid month right before the furnace. We’ll see if we grab one this year but this is feeling like a warmer version of 88-89. Hedge against snow even if there’s windows of opportunity.

We’ve reduced ourselves to rooting for extremely uncomfortably frigid weather this winter.

Doesnt seem like the euro is backing off compared to 00z. Actually looked a bit further south with the cold.

There’s been a lot of scooter highs in clown range the past few runs. It kind of fits the pattern though…I know it’s popular in here right now to forecast non-stop warmth for February but it’s really hard to get all-out furnaces when you still have some cross polar flow into Canada. Its the type of pattern that will be mild in the mean, but there could be bouts of colder intrusion. We’ll see though….maybe the cross polar flow shuts off and if it does, then it could torch more without interruption.

Might be a little snow tomorrow morning too…esp south of pike.

The consistency of the warmth has been amazing. You’d think a plus 9 or plus 10 month would have several big torches of 50s and 60s but that isn’t the case. ORH has cracked 50 just twice this month, 11 highs in the 40s, and 18 highs in the 30s. Zero highs below 30. But the min temps are the bigger culprit. Lowest of the whole month is 19F which is still warmer than the average low for any of the days this month, lol. Mins have run about plus 13 this month.

Had about an inch this morning. Looks nice.

He was responding to a post about the lack of arctic air most of this winter. Def has helped with heating bills.

We have about an inch here. Some good fatties while I dropped my youngest off at daycare

NNE had a lot of lean years in the 80s too. It maybe wasn’t quite as bad as the epicenter of suck in SNE, but it was pretty terrible…they did have a couple blockbusters. Esp early 80s. I think they cleaned up pretty good in the super Nino of 82-83 and then did well in the same years SNE did in 81-82 and 83-84.

ORH will need about a +4 February to beat out 2001-2002 for warmest winter. Doable but not easy after the first few days will be putting up monster cold departures.

2/9-10/87 was a whopper on the cape. Some spots had over 30 inches of mostly grease…temps near freezing for most of the storm but it flash-froze near the end with temps dropping into teens. I think Scooter’s hood had around 6” but once you got west of 128 it was mostly 1-3”…yeah the forum would be in epic melt mode

There’s gonna be some -30s with wind on the summits which is just insanity. You’ll need Antarctic gear.

Yes game farm radiated like the moon.