ORH_wxman

It will be the most correct if we're talking about runs from yesterday....but it could still be a smidge too cold. But GFS was clearly too warm and it trended a lot toward Euro so now the differences are small.

Yeah that HRRR output is going for historic type readings. It might be just a meso weenieing out too much but you kind of have to at least consider it after that 18z euro run got -36 850 temps to the pike.

Yeah people will be out and about on Friday afternoon…they’ll go into work thinking it’s cold but bearable..and then leave in ranging CAA with brutal temps.

There was like 3 years in a row where Scooter had a higher peak depth than some of those valley towns up there….I remember it became a running joke for a while.

Anyone who wants to look at the raw power of pure CAA can look up 4/5/95. Bare ground and April sun angle with almost no clouds. We had a high of 26F I think in ORH that day.

Yeah I remember it sort of went through southern VT and right into MA for the strongest anomalies. We were tracking Stratton mountain temps.

Kind of weird how consistently the OP GFS has been showing a decent pattern in clown range while ensembles are not. (Outside of that 2/10-2/12 period)

You didn’t break -13 in the 2016 event? ORH airport had -16F.

That 2/1/21 event had a pretty crazy cutoff near me. I had about 17 inches while just 4-5 miles away had 8” of total slop. Even lower parts of my town on the south side prob had 5” less than me. Great event though. That pack had some real meat in it. We ran the table for solid pack from 1/26 that season through mid-March even though it stopped snowing around 2/18-2/20.

Then why wouldn't you get odds on your bet?

ORH just had 12.2" in a month that was literally +10 on temps. They only need one third of that total for you to lose your bet. You need to understand climo a little better I think before wagering.

If we start with a date of 2/10, then the odds increase a little bit....I was correct about 1995....also 1954 and 1901 failed to reach 4" after 2/10 but both were close (over 3 inches). So we're up to 3 out of 130 years versus 0 out of 130.

They’ve never done it in the record so I’d prob put the odds under 1% without looking at anything. If we assume they don’t see anything in the next 7 days which seems reasonable, then maybe the odds rise to a little better than 100 to 1. I’d have to run the numbers from like 2/10-onward to see if they have ever done less than 4” from there. 1995 may have done it…we had hardly anything after the 2/4 storm. We did get a couple inches on the front end of the 2/27-28 ice storm but very little outside of that…there was one other event of less than an inch before the ice storm…and I know we got skunked in March ‘95.

They only need 3.8” to beat it (and 1.8 inches if we use Kevin’s criteria of excluding snowfall past 3/31). One run-of-the-mill forgettable front ender would do it. We used to always sled down the street when I was younger. Plows would get it down to packed snow but they didn’t use as much salt back then so you would have this 1-2” layer of hard packed snow to sled on in the middle of the street (our neighborhood was a giant hill with 2 or 3 streets running down it). We used to hate it when the sanders came through because it would temporarily screw up the sledding but after a little more snow, the sand disappeared. It didn’t melt the snow like salt does. They were obsessed with using sand back then for traction.

If we exclude April, then the record changes. ORH lowest snowfall of 21.2” in 1954-55 included 2 inches in April 1955so their record would actually be 19.2 inches which is a lot easier to pass.

Yeah the mid-90s broke the crap streak but we were still living off the experience of the previous years so for a while, those 6-10" type maps would still be really exciting....I feel like once we got done with April '97, there had been enough big dogs that the moderate storms stopped being as much of a high. It takes a few years to get your priors updated.

The period betwen 1955-56 and 1971-72 for ORH is unmatched....not a single ratter for 17 consecutive seasons. That's where I had to hear all the "not like they used to be" crap from....but they were right, it was an insane stretch. The 1930s-early 1950s were sneaky awful, but nobody cares about those years.... great depression and WWII were going on, lol.

We got back to back snow events in January 1991 I remember....the first one was 2" and the second was like 7 or 8 inches.....and the snow stuck around for about 2 weeks before melting. We were literally outside sledding, doing snowball fights, etc for those 2 weeks. I remember thinking "This is what winter is supposed to be like"....just seeing snow fall onto top of existing snowpack was alien to me. It was like I discovered fire for the first time.

3-6" was "exciting" but anything over 6" was like how we would react to 15"+ nowadays. If 6" was your lower range back then, you were literally doing backflips off the couch.

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

Yep....that's all we heard as kids. "we don't get the big ones like when I was younger....we used to get blizzards where the piles would be over your head in the driveway, not just the supermarket parking lots!". After a while, I assumed they were exaggerating....like I figured they were snowier than the dogshit winters we were getting at the time, but not to the degree they were telling us. Then finally '92-'93 happened to end the streak and I also started reading more about local weather history as I got into middle school/high school and finally realized just how horrific those late '80s/early 90s winters were relative to all the other years.

Too bad we couldn't hold that high for Saturday night....we'd prob see some insane readings. But this whole thing sped up about 6-10 hours from a few days ago. We might get to see some spots in upstate NY like SLK go lunar though friday night.

It is still mind-blowing to me (I wouldn't believe it if I didn't personally experience every minute of it) that ORH went 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snow event from '88-'89 through '91-'92....I wonder what the return rate on that one is.

Yeah there's been some scooter high looks on various runs on that system....hopefully we can cash that one in. Not a ton of antecedent cold though (what else is new this winter)....but it's more than enough if you get the high in a decent spot.

12z Euro actually trended colder again after less at 00z.