ORH_wxman

I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.

We briefly dipped below 16F about 30 min ago but now rotting at 17F....it's almost like when the wind isn't howling in with the CAA, we managed to tick up a bit but when we get the next burst of huge gusts/CAA, it drops a degree or two.

12z GFS is -32C at 925 for BOS at 06z....that's threatening beating 2016.

We have been dropping in a little bursts here....I was rotting around 17.6-18.0 for like an hour and then all of the sudden we dumped down to 16.8F in the past 10 min.

No that was 2018-19.....2019-20 was the biggie in early December (mostly to your north but you did get some in that) and then mostly dogshit the rest of the way. There were a couple smaller events in December after tha early month storm.

RAP and HRRR both have 925 temp around -31C or -32C for pike region. NAM continues to be a tick or two warmer around -29C. The 3k looks a little colder though than the 12k NAM....but still a little warmer than HRRR/RAP

And yet, you'd still lose your bet if we got snow like Dec and Jan. Difference between generally shitty winter wx and getting completely skunked. It's hard to get skunked at 1000 feet in interior New England.

I'd want to see a huge pig over AK to really think about futility for a month when it's only Feb 3rd....seeing that EPO ridge just makes me think there's a decent chance something gets timed for some snow....even if its a front ender, etc....it's hard to get skunked in February.

They must have counted the Feb 28-29 storm that year as March 1st with the delayed coop reporting?

Thanks for that. Wonder why they won’t recognize the 1885 reading. Maybe they didn’t trust whatever thermometer they were using back then.

ORH went from 25 to 18 on the latest 12z ob

NAM caving a bit more.

Yeah rad pits in calm wind showing -7 is a completely different sensible wx feel to -7 ripping with 25 knot winds. You can get -7 in calm winds and be 25-30F a few hours later in daylight. Tomorrow afternoon might be near 0F in spots near NH border and single digits in much of MA with wind. That’s the difference between “fake” cold and these deep layer CAA events. You typically want to combine the two if you want to go super low in the rad pits…you get the CAA and then the next night it goes calm and you put up a -22F or something. We won’t do this in that event because it’s too fast. But some of the slower ones like Jan 1994 and Jan 2004 were able to do it.

Yeah if we could have turned the flow (like 925-850) more like 230-250, we could’ve had some really intense stuff because LL moisture is the main limiting factor in these. The other WINDEX checklist items are present.

Nice, so that def is in line with 925 cracking -30C....we basically have: Euro/HRRR: Rivaling (or even slightly exceeding on HRRR) 2016 GFS: Just a tick below? Though for CNE/NNE, it is a little colder....slightly warmer in SNE. NAM: Several ticks warmer than 2016

Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere. The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short.

-35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference.

Very similar to Vday 2016 cold shot...its in and out in like 24-30 hours. We were in the 50s on that Monday after being below zero Sunday morning.

I think you mean Jan 2021....Jan 2022 was actually pretty cold.

I am more inclined to believe the 2m temps in this type of setup vs the radiational cooling nights. The warmest 2m temps are the NAM right now which is your -5 to -6 range. GFS is maybe barely colder. Euro is wild with -10 or colder. I went back and looked at Vday 2016 and the Euro was going like -11 or -12 at BOS, so it ended up a couple degrees too cold, but not too far off. GFS was awful in that one....was like 5F too warm 36 hours out. Though I know the model has been upgraded since then. The MAV guidance was hilarious though....it was like 8-10F too warm. Too much climo on a 24 hour forecast i guess.

Won’t matter anyway. Wind will be too strong. It might decouple further west though like around SLK. Those would be the rad pits to look at Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Yeah maybe. It’s weird though because we got pretty damned cold (with plenty of snow to boot) in the previous Niña base state from 2007-2013. But this one has definitely been different…a lot more +AO and when we do happen to get Atlantic blocking, it just hasn’t been able to trap PV underneath it in SE Canada ala years winters like 2010-2011. We’ve had two useless blocking episodes in the past 3 winters (one this past December and then another the first few weeks of January 2021…that one did reload at least and become useful in Feb 2021). But hopefully we can shake it up for next winter.

-10 at Logan would be even colder than they got in 2016. I’ll take the over. Prob somewhere around -7 or -8. Still ridiculous for them.

Yeah it’s been really noticeable the past few winters…really since the localized shift in 2019 it seems. The northeast has been an island of furnace since then while all the cold is dumping well west. You could argue it started after the 2014-15 winter, but we still had some good decently long periods of cold in ‘17-18 and ‘18-19. It’s like pulling teeth since then.