ORH_wxman

Kind of annoyed we don't have K8B0 obs....Rangeley at 1800+ feet would have been good too.

We're dipping again in this latest burst....gone from 17.4 to 15.8 in about 15 min.

I'm glad they didn't waste a snow day here...I'd rather my kid be done in June a little earlier. It's gonna be really nasty later, but it's mostly after the kids are home.

925 temps aren’t even -20C yet in most of SNE. You aren’t going to be getting super low readings yet. Even in CNE it’s like -25C…that’s really cold but the meat of it is still to come…they should shave off another 10C at 925 even in CNE. Down in SNE we might shave off another 13-15C

Here you can see the obscene gradient right now

Between now and 00z, 925 temps go from like -17C to -26C or -27C...you don't get that kind of drop without a big response at the sfc in this mixed environment.

It's prob gonna utterly crater after about 2pm when the sun gets pretty weak.

I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.

We briefly dipped below 16F about 30 min ago but now rotting at 17F....it's almost like when the wind isn't howling in with the CAA, we managed to tick up a bit but when we get the next burst of huge gusts/CAA, it drops a degree or two.

12z GFS is -32C at 925 for BOS at 06z....that's threatening beating 2016.

We have been dropping in a little bursts here....I was rotting around 17.6-18.0 for like an hour and then all of the sudden we dumped down to 16.8F in the past 10 min.

No that was 2018-19.....2019-20 was the biggie in early December (mostly to your north but you did get some in that) and then mostly dogshit the rest of the way. There were a couple smaller events in December after tha early month storm.

RAP and HRRR both have 925 temp around -31C or -32C for pike region. NAM continues to be a tick or two warmer around -29C. The 3k looks a little colder though than the 12k NAM....but still a little warmer than HRRR/RAP

And yet, you'd still lose your bet if we got snow like Dec and Jan. Difference between generally shitty winter wx and getting completely skunked. It's hard to get skunked at 1000 feet in interior New England.

I'd want to see a huge pig over AK to really think about futility for a month when it's only Feb 3rd....seeing that EPO ridge just makes me think there's a decent chance something gets timed for some snow....even if its a front ender, etc....it's hard to get skunked in February.

They must have counted the Feb 28-29 storm that year as March 1st with the delayed coop reporting?

Thanks for that. Wonder why they won’t recognize the 1885 reading. Maybe they didn’t trust whatever thermometer they were using back then.

ORH went from 25 to 18 on the latest 12z ob

NAM caving a bit more.

Yeah rad pits in calm wind showing -7 is a completely different sensible wx feel to -7 ripping with 25 knot winds. You can get -7 in calm winds and be 25-30F a few hours later in daylight. Tomorrow afternoon might be near 0F in spots near NH border and single digits in much of MA with wind. That’s the difference between “fake” cold and these deep layer CAA events. You typically want to combine the two if you want to go super low in the rad pits…you get the CAA and then the next night it goes calm and you put up a -22F or something. We won’t do this in that event because it’s too fast. But some of the slower ones like Jan 1994 and Jan 2004 were able to do it.

Yeah if we could have turned the flow (like 925-850) more like 230-250, we could’ve had some really intense stuff because LL moisture is the main limiting factor in these. The other WINDEX checklist items are present.

Nice, so that def is in line with 925 cracking -30C....we basically have: Euro/HRRR: Rivaling (or even slightly exceeding on HRRR) 2016 GFS: Just a tick below? Though for CNE/NNE, it is a little colder....slightly warmer in SNE. NAM: Several ticks warmer than 2016

Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere. The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short.

-35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference.