ORH_wxman

Yeah I’m not opposed in principle, but by the time this current mild spell this week wanes (at least to an atmosphere that can support snow), we’re getting into mid-February and it’s getting pretty late to freeze everything into mid-winter form. Up in Rangeley it’s not that late but down here if you have open water in mid-February, it’s pretty hard to bring that back to weeks of ice. You’d need like a solid 5-7 day cold snap and then no torches right after it. Unfortunately that type of look is not in the cards. We may get a snow threat or two but the temps look to run pretty mild…maybe a flip later in the month. But this SE ridge is pretty robust, so the more pragmatic side of me says I’d rather just mail it in at this point instead of hoping for cold/snow that is going to be tough to come by. We’ll still get a few snow threats. My aim at this point is to root for us running into a big dog late this month or early March and then call it a season. I’ve given up on the pack and pond ice fetish until next year. I did get out on the ice today with the boys and it was great. Not cold but 4-5” thick black ice on the local pond.

Def better than bare ground and frigid. I’ll take the mild wx this week over the weekend weather. I liked the quick arctic shot to try and get some records but no need for that shit to hang around more than a day or two. Hopefully 2/12 trends better. I’ll always root for snow but I’m not a masochist. I won’t root for arctic cold with no snow.

Yeah sure. Of course we could.

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t.

They are at 7.9” I think. Almost no chance for futility record.

What futility are you referring to

We just need to move to Salisbury Maryland

Outside of the 2/12 situation, looks quite boring until maybe late in the month.

Just outside now at 40F and it feels really nice. The arctic shot was fun, but if we’re not gonna snow this week, then bring on the milder weather.

Yeah and that’s how I picked out ORH pretty quickly yesterday. I had been suspicious of them for a while (due to their monthly departures always being warmer than other sites recently) but didn’t bother to deep-dive until this cold snap…this was a perfect atmosphere to do a QC and they quickly did not pass the smell test. Solid 2-3F too warm. It looks like MPV’s malfunction was only yesterday though right? It seemed like from Brian’s graph that the ASOS there was fine for the first part of the day and then rapidly went haywire.

Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked.

Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win. Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does.

Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. Its not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month.

Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches.

These events are really good for weeding out bad obs because the ridiculously mixed atmosphere basically just makes latitude and elevation the only significant factors.

Seems like interior NNJ into interior SE NY has been in a pretty bad screw zone for a while…can extend that into W CT

The headline did specify “two day storm totals”. But yeah, Feb 69 was a lot longer than that.

It should probably be in top 5 for ORH too but I’ve always been skeptical of their identical 10.1” measurements at exactly 10 to 1 QPF for both Feb 6 and 7 1978. Also observed snow depth went from 10” to 30” exactly matching the “storm total”. This tells me it was estimated after the storm ended. All of the evidence I’ve seen points me to about 26-28” at ORH in that storm. But unfortunately that’s what goes into the climate record.

Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total.

Do they have a messed up sensor too? That looks extremely egregious. You’d think in 2023 we could avoid shitty temp sensors that go into official climate data. edit: just saw dendrites post

5F at lunchtime. I was expecting a slightly better rebound today but yesterday someone (I think wx2fish) mentioned the inversion kind of holding tough for a while with the high still cresting over New England….looks like that has happened so far. Might be the type of day where the max is closer to sunset than usual…we’ll see.

I think that paper was 2008. Theyve def upgraded CFS a couple times since then.

Yeah that’s what I thought but couldn’t remember. Unlikely both sensors would be fried so the dews are prob legit. Im just glad ORH didn’t put up -14 or -15 on the temps. Extremely unlikely they beat 2016’s reading of -16 given the surrounding mesonets. One in Paxton touched -17 but a few others didn’t and that one was at 1200 feet a couple hundred feet higher than airport.

Yeah the move to the Logan airport site from a bit inland in 1936 had a much larger effect than any UHI. BOS proper was already quite built up by mid-20th century as you said. It’s not a situation like Dulles airport or Sea-Tac where a ton of land use changes happened.

I wonder if their dew sensor was operating ok….since we know the temp was running 2-3F too warm. Dec 1990 readings are totally fake. Wasn’t even that dry or cold of an airmass.