ORH_wxman

GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though.

Reminds me a bit of ‘96-97 (pre-March/April of course)…..mild winter but there was a ton of snow in the lakes region there in W ME. We went up skiing to Sunday river on Feb 16-18 that year and there about 2” of crust in ORH…zero pack east of ORH on 495 all the way up through southern Maine and then it went from 0 to about a 40” pack in Waterford ME in a span of 30 miles or so. They had a great snow year despite a lot of the region struggling to that point.

The 2nd week of March can sometimes break down into a more bowling ball “spring” type pattern but we’ve also seen it behave like mid-winter too (2014 or 2017 come to mind with these massive longwave deep troughs over the east with upstream ridging in the west)….2018 was maybe a hybrid…massive NAO/AO blocking and a lot of cutoffs but there was a thermal gradient to tap into that is often not there in, say, early to mid April, so we got those epic snow bombs in March ‘18. Either way…I don’t have much to add on the SSW front for you and radarman’s discussion but I don’t put much stock in them from a LR perspective since they are so hit or miss on the effects…usually by the time we can figure out if it’s going to cause favorable blocking, that said blocking is already seen by mid-range ensemble guidance and there’s no need to try and read the tea leaves at 10mb or 50mb.

Yep...42F and overcast here with a brisk wind. Utterly useless.

Weeklies are trying for one last hurrah period for late Feb through mid-March. They actually have some sustained western ridging that is supported by a solid Aleutian low. I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm just the messenger here.

Murphy's Law this season....when we actually got blocking and lower heights in December for that 18 day window, they didn't produce shit (in our backyard at least). Then the PV decided to sit its ass over in Siberia for the better part of a month with only a brief visit back over here recently....and during the times the PV was over here, we haven't produced any snow events anyway.

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

We're prob not seeing any blocking like March 2018 walking through that door....but maybe we can pull a Mar 2017 or a late Feb/early Mar 2019 type pattern.

Yeah it's not a 3-4 day chinook like 2017 , but even a day or two would be nice to dry things out some. EPS trying to give an arctic shot right after it....lol.

Yeah like I posted earlier about GFS/GGEM....signal is geting pretty good. You want to see that highest height anomalies shooting up into NNE and S Quebec for the true clean warm sector idea where we make a run at 70. It's hitting the same date too....Feb 17th.

We'll get just enough compromise to give everyone advisory snow and ruin any fantasies of futility, but not enough for Kevin to be happy he was wrong.

Ok not as bad as I thought....not enough eye candy to suck us back in.

It's gonna do it.

I'd watch Feb 17ish for Tip's potential warm burst...showing up decently on both GFS/GGEM today. Hard to get a clean warm sector, but both have a decent high well southeast of the Atlantic which is what you kind of want to see. You don't want to see any highs lurking up to the north which is almost always a sign of warm sector failure....at least a clean warm sector.

This winter has given us snow lovers a good glimpse into what severe wx lovers in New England feel like every year.

Yeah up by CAR is different world....even back toward Jackman is. But getting down into the lakes region of western ME further south has struggled with milder temps keeping water bars open, etc.

Dryslot just put his laptop through a wood chipper.

No, you are correct....there is a zero percent chance dendrite's frozen to liquid ratio this winter is anywhere close to 85/15.....if it was, he'd have like 4 feet on the ground. The biggest difference over the interior there is they don't melt out due to exceptionally strong CAD while the coast torches.

I noticed a very strong smell of soil this morning while out....and I smelled it all over town, so I don't think it was a local construction job or anything. I was wondering if it was the thaw after the it froze down a few inches this weekend.

We were out on ice yesterday.....a lot of it was good clear black ice that went down a solid 3-4" so I had no qualms about my boys being on the ice with me. Lot of people playing hockey too. All a dream in a couple more days. This winter may rival 2001-2002 as the least amount of pond ice I've seen during the winter.

I'd love to dry out the ground a bit....With all the rain we've had, plus the recent freeze (now thawing) and the small amount of snow we had in late January....the ground is pretty damp. I'd take 60 and dry....but 46F and rain will just make me want to stick needles in my eyes, lol

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

If we get through the final week of February, then maybe....but nobody is really that compelling at the moment in the BOX stations....I think BDR (OKX office) has a non-hail mary shot though. They are sitting at 0.8 inches right now with their record at 8.2 inches.

Yeah the ridge is a little offshore so it sort of renders the PNA neutral...but we have cross polar flow and a pretty robust PV on our side of the hemisphere....so I could definitely see a wintry stretch in late Feb/early Mar for one last run at something meaningful. It could easily crap out though....so people shouldn't start expecting a grand finale....though in this winter, an 8 inch snow event would be considered a "Grand finale"....so we'll see. I'd obviously wait until we're much closer to put more definitive odds on seeing something wintry.

Yeah that event is likely toast. But I’ll give it another cycle or two. Then we deal with a monster SE ridge for the next week beyond that…next potential for snow would be last week of Feb imho if 2/12 doesn’t produce.