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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    How long has it been since we saw this type of Scooter high with a juicy system coming out of the south? It’s starting to get that “look” where something larger could happen…just need to get this a bit closer but the cross-guidance support is really strong for being a week out
  2. ORH_wxman
    Almost reminds me of this event http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0107.php#picture
  3. ORH_wxman
    Commutes might not be that bad for most. Much of this falls after morning commute and ends before evening commute. Exceptions might be SW CT where it could affect the morning commute and then further northeast into Maine where it could still be steady precip during evening commute.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Little bit of CCB getting going.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Just not a whole lot of exciting dynamics with this thing. The hope is that the vort attenuates a little less than model guidance shows which would strengthen the thump. But otherwise I think 1-3” for many. Maybe some 4” lollis north of pike into CNE. All guidance keeps the secondary sfc reflection SE of the region now so I don’t see any liquid precip over the interior.
  6. ORH_wxman
    How can you say that without it posting a clown map for Moonshine? I will say the most impressive part of the EPS run is the 6” mean for BOS-ORH (and you can extend that basically down to HVN) for next week’s event (the event after Sunday which could be a prolonged overrunning situation)…impressive mean for that far out.
  7. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS tickled a little colder and a little weaker with primary into NY state…slight faster transfer. N of pike to central NH looks excellent on the mean…but still nice thump for even S of pike folks.
  8. ORH_wxman
    06z euro pretty nice thump for BOS-ORH. 6-7” or so.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Euro suite still a bit more amped than other guidance for this threat. Still a nice front end but def more mixing/ptype issues further north.
  10. ORH_wxman
    18z op vs 18z EPS…pretty decent match actually as 18z EPS amped up a little bit from 12z …OP still on the stronger side but not by a ridiculous amount…this one def has more dynamics than Thursday.
  11. ORH_wxman
    18z OP euro is still pretty amped. It’s a good thump before mixing but def more amped than the ensembles.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the tick colder on 18z euro makes the difference between all guidance pretty small now save for the very paltry 3k NAM but hard to take that seriously yet. Maybe inside of 36h start giving it any weight at all.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd want to see more guidance spitting out 0.40-0.50" of snow QPF before going anything above 4". Maybe that happens at 00z, but it's entirely possible it's mainly a 0.2-0.35" type event on the snow front.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Not an appreciable difference in 18z GFS. PRetty consistent with other guidance for most of us. On the margins there might be changes. Maybe a touch weaker with the initial thump down in S CT if we're nitpicking, but still a pretty cold run with the sfc reflection tracking from near Delmarva to ACK.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I'd take the over on 1" and there's a chance it could be 4-5" if things break right...not a large quibble though. I think i'd go 2-4 and prob 3-5 if we can eliminate some of the weirdo solutions by 00z like the 3k NAM giving us 4 hours of SN- that amounts to 1-2"...or some of those zonked Euro solutions which give us 2-3" but dangerously close to giving us 1".
  16. ORH_wxman
    Just for moonshine....
  17. ORH_wxman
    At least for the pike region, the models are pretty consistent about advisory snows....including the Euro. Down in CT, it's basically every model except the Euro. edit: I'll note that the EPS mean for Hartford is around 3" though, so it's a bit more bullish than the OP run...most noticeable difference is down in S CT where the EPS mean is 2-3" vs C-1 for the OP run.
  18. ORH_wxman
    EPS is pretty bullish on this threat. Mean is around 6” for BOS. A little less but still 4-5” across much of CT.
  19. ORH_wxman
    You need to maintain that leading vort…if it attenuates too much you lose those dynamics…aka, no bent back ML warm front…instead it’s just kind of a weak general isentropic glide with no defined area of enhanced vertical motion. I think it will produce enough for solid advisory snows but not more than that.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Euro was def a tick colder than the 06z run.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Weathermodels kept saying it was out to 144 like 10 min ago but none of the maps loaded anything.
  25. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR.
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